Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates? Markets have made a dramatic reassessment of the prospects for monetary, judging by the sharp decline in Overnight Index Swaps rates and Canada Government bond yields. In fact, these rates now suggest... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stumbles in second quarter The sharp decline in May's GDP was a reflection of several unusually severe weather-related factors that disrupted energy and metal mining production. Although the negative effects on economic growth... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending slowdown more abrupt than desired The soft patch in household spending may be more than just a blip, judging by the negative effect high energy prices and rising food prices are having on underlying retail sales. Although we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Headwinds, tailwinds and monetary policy The key message in the July Monetary Policy Report: short term interest rates will remain unusually low for a considerably lengthy period. In a technical box towards the end of the report, the Bank... 26th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Businesses poised for employee hiring spree? Businesses are poised for an employee hiring spree, judging by the upbeat second quarter Business Outlook Survey results. Among the firms surveyed from late May to mid-June, the balance of opinion on... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects for a sustained rebound in growth dimming Following 3.9% annualised growth in the first quarter, our latest calculations point to a substantial slowdown in second-quarter GDP growth, to 1.2%. Although we anticipate a partial rebound in the... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising core inflation no reason to hike interest rates The increase in the headline CPI inflation rate to an eight-year high of 3.7% in May, from 3.3%, and the pick up in the core inflation rate to a seven-month high of 1.8%, from 1.6%, predictably led to... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter slowdown Domestic demand growth is losing momentum. To make matters worse, disruptions to auto and energy exporters have further dampened overall economic growth in the second quarter. Although we anticipate... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is housing really in short supply? Over the last ten years, the accumulation of excess new housing inventory, sharp increases in homeownership rates and rising rental vacancy rates have all coincided with a house price boom and a run... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to differ much from first version If the Bank of Canada was trying to hint in last week's statement that a rate hike might be on the way then that message was largely drowned out by the unrelenting flow of weak economic data coming... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter growth slowdown The week ahead will be dominated by first quarter GDP and the Bank of Canada's policy decision. We estimate that Canada's economy grew by 3.7% annualised in the first quarter. Temporary disruptions to... 30th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing renovation boom on shaky ground Renovation investment has risen to historically high levels in Canada. This boom in renovation is another symptom of a broader housing bubble. The very high level of construction employment is another... 23rd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation remains benign Last week's drop back in commodity prices was a stark reminder of why the Bank of Canada has largely ignored what looks increasingly like a temporary commodities-related spike in consumer price... 16th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business sector will buffer construction downturn Stronger business investment in non-residential structures should at least partly buffer the negative impact on the construction sector from an expected downturn in homebuilding and the tailing off of... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble a national problem The latest Teranet National Bank house price report, released last week, provided a timely counterbalance to the growing belief that Canada's housing boom is being driven solely by Chinese purchases... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy vulnerable to a commodities correction Sharply higher commodity prices and a runaway Canadian currency are boosting Canada's terms of trade, a key source of growth in incomes and therefore domestic spending. In some cases, specific... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
