Canada Economics Weekly Fussing over federal finances is misplaced We agree that the federal government will take longer than previously thought to return to budgetary balance but, really, so what? Considering that the primary federal budget is already balanced and... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Narrowing in the trade deficit probably temporary The employment figures took a lot of the gloss off the news earlier in the week that monthly GDP growth accelerated back in August. It is clear that even if energy and autos production were enjoying a... 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New forecast consensus still too high Although most private-sector forecasters have revised down their GDP forecasts for Canada, they still seem too high to us. The latest surveys show that consensus expectations for real GDP growth over... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are leading indicators pointing to trouble ahead? With concerns over Europe's fiscal and financial mess dominating the headlines, domestic investors largely ignored the news last week that Statistics Canada's composite leading index suggests that... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Could housing investment growth re-accelerate? The recent surge in multi-unit housing starts indicates that new construction activity could boost overall residential investment growth for at least one or two more quarters, possibly even into early... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the loonie's downward trend set to continue? The downward trend in the Canadian dollar, or loonie, against the US dollar over the last two months is broadly consistent with the deterioration in the global economic outlook and the resulting slide... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What does the euro-zone crisis mean for Canada? The fiscal crisis in the euro-zone is threatening to derail the global economic recovery. Although Canada is a very open economy with exports still accounting for 30% of GDP, shipments to the euro... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy headed for recession? Recession fears and concerns are understandable, considering that second-quarter GDP contracted and monthly import data received thus far hints at falling business investment, which has been a key... 27th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers stand ready As the outlook for global economic growth deteriorates markedly, there is a growing likelihood that more policy stimulus will eventually be required in Canada. With its key short-term rate at 1.0%... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tightening financial conditions cast more doubt Judging by the declines in the Bank of Canada's Financial Conditions Index (FCI), financial conditions appear to have tightened recently, despite somewhat lower bond yields. Although the amount of... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's all the fuss about real GDI? Most analysts agree that real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is another useful indication of economic activity. For the purposes of monetary policy, however, what ultimately matters, more than any other... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Where's the economy headed? Most analysts now agree that the Canadian economy stumbled in the second quarter, but we think that the current quarter will be better. A rebound from several unusually severe weather-related factors... 30th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House prices vulnerable to swing in "animal spirits" Canadian house prices have formed a bubble and are vulnerable to a sudden loss of investor confidence. As such, we continue to expect prices to fall substantially over the next few years, which will... 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the Bank of Canada cut interest rates? Markets have made a dramatic reassessment of the prospects for monetary, judging by the sharp decline in Overnight Index Swaps rates and Canada Government bond yields. In fact, these rates now suggest... 16th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stumbles in second quarter The sharp decline in May's GDP was a reflection of several unusually severe weather-related factors that disrupted energy and metal mining production. Although the negative effects on economic growth... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending slowdown more abrupt than desired The soft patch in household spending may be more than just a blip, judging by the negative effect high energy prices and rising food prices are having on underlying retail sales. Although we... 2nd August 2011 · 1 min read
