Canada Economics Weekly Vehicle sales driving consumption This year's surprising strength in new auto sales bodes well for first-quarter consumption, which could have risen by as much as 5% annualised. Even if sales faltered a little towards the end of the... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investment reliant on sustained high oil prices With oil prices riding high, the outlook for business investment this year looks pretty good. We would feel more comfortable, however, if investment plans were not so dependent on the fate of one... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Low vacancy rates don't mean what you might think The low rental vacancy rate in Canada is often linked to strong immigration growth and presented as a reason why the current strength in new condo sales and multi-unit construction can be sustained in... 27th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness in Q4 GDP growth likely to persist Despite more upbeat fourth-quarter net exports, our calculations suggest that softer business investment, particularly inventories, held back fourth-quarter GDP growth. From what we can tell, growth... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What explains the modest gain in new house prices? The price of detached new houses rose by just 2.5% in 2011, slightly below the average annual increase of around 4.0% over the last ten years, which is not that much higher than average annual... 13th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Federal austerity not needed Recent remarks by government officials suggest that the upcoming Federal budget, expected in March, will deliver spending cuts that are deeper and sooner than those already outlined in last year's... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Solid consumption growth sustained this quarter The latest retail sales data indicate that fourth-quarter real consumption grew by over 3% annualised and we think there is a good chance that this strength might be sustained this quarter as well... 30th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's outlook rests on weaker footing We think the Bank of Canada's latest projections for economic growth this year and next are too high, mainly because they rely more heavily on sustained growth in household expenditures, particularly... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Resurgent housing investment cannot be sustained The recent strength in housing activity indicates that housing investment has made a resurgence and is still contributing strongly to GDP growth. Against a bleak global economic backdrop, this... 16th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market rally does not alter Canada's outlook Last week's market rally in commodity prices, which was already flagging before the week ended, does nothing to alter our view on Canada's economic outlook. After growing by an estimated 2.4% in 2011... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation poised to fall back in 2012 Consumer price inflation reached almost 3% in 2011, its highest rate in several years, with higher energy and food prices the main culprits. As a result of that pick up in inflation, the increase in... 27th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining household net worth raises red flags For the past decade households have been on a debt-financed consumption and housing investment spree, reinforced recently by historically low interest rates. This trend has been accompanied by rising... 19th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More regional evidence on house prices New regional house price data show that many metropolitan areas have seen existing house prices rise sharply from already elevated levels this year. We think these facts count towards dispelling the... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's up with income growth? The recent slowdown in growth of wages and salaries is fairly notable by historical standards. In the third quarter at least, overall personal income growth was also dampened by the effect of lower... 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in Q3 GDP growth won't be sustained Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the... 28th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business confidence key to investment outlook After expanding very strongly in the first half of this year, we now estimate that business investment grew at a tepid pace in the third quarter. Nevertheless, there are good reasons to expect... 21st November 2011 · 1 min read
