Canada Economics Weekly Are restrictions on home buyers too onerous? Although federal regulatory tightening of mortgage insurance rules and other lending principles have upset housing, we believe the new restrictions on home buying are prudent rather than too onerous... 12th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturers in path of perfect storm The fragility of the global economic recovery, as we have long forewarned, has resurfaced and signs point to a material slowdown in global growth and commodity prices. Unfortunately, the global... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada not immune to potential sub-prime problems The sub-prime mortgage crisis is often miscast as the cause of the US housing bust and that because Canada's sub-prime industry is supposedly much smaller in comparison, fears of a similar housing... 29th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment outlook less encouraging Despite the global economic slowdown, Canadian business investment is just about holding up, largely thanks to the strength of engineering and construction projects. All things considered, we think... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish GDP growth likely to stay Disappointing third-quarter trade figures, both for exports and imports, suggests that even our own bearish view on quarterly GDP growth of 1.4% annualised might be too high. Barring significant... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds stacking heavily against condo soft landing Slumping home sales is casting a dark shadow over prospects for new housing construction. Although the recent surge in multi-unit housing starts might sustain the elevated level of overall housing... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stalling exports adds to economy's woes The surge in Canada's monthly trade deficit to a record high of C$2.34bn in July illustrated that the deteriorating global economic backdrop is beginning to have a very marked impact. The widening of... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What are the odds of an economic slump? The OECD is now forecasting that growth in the G7 economies will slump over the second half of this year, barely managing to stay in positive territory, before picking up materially next year... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's current account deficit sound? Canada's current account deficit is likely to widen due to slower forecast global economic growth and lower commodity prices. That said, the large net financial deficit of households indicates that... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to increase Canada's employment gains during its economic recovery have been far from broad-based and bolstered by an oversized contribution from the public sector. In addition, the official unemployment rate... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising interest rate expectations misplaced Market expectations of higher interest rates over the next 12 months look misplaced. The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with much of Europe in recession and the US economy facing a fiscal... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Modest progress on "productive" investment The recent strength in imports of machinery and equipment suggest business investment is on a tear. Closer examination of productivity-boosting investment, however, suggests progress has been modest... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth continues to ease The anaemic rate of Canadian economic growth is becoming a major concern, particularly when the chances are that growth will only slow further in the second half of this year. Before the end of this... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are consumers retreating? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
