Canada Economics Weekly Moderate consumption growth may not last We calculate that, after falling by 0.8% m/m in April, retail sales volumes rebounded strongly in May. In addition, recent employment gains and lower gasoline prices likely supported retail sales in... 29th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household borrowing near full throttle Household borrowing has accelerated over the last few quarters, a trend that might continue to push the debt-to-income ratio higher. However, the faltering global economic recovery and drop back in... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tumbling commodity prices darken outlook The faltering global economy has sent commodity prices tumbling and it seems unlikely they will rebound. Prices might rally initially in response to any further support provided by global central... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing construction likely to keep on giving The latest permit data indicate that condo developments continue to be the main source of strength in new housing construction, which has showed little sign of slowing. Given the lengthy construction... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Underlying inflation likely to turn down Although underlying inflation appears to have drifted higher over the last several months, this trend still remains well within the central bank's inflation target range. Recent movements in commodity... 4th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's bark worse than bite The rapid appreciation of the Canadian dollar since 2003 has certainly added to the challenges confronting the manufacturing sector. Much more important to this sector's struggle, however, has been... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would a Greek euro exit mean for Canada? Although Greece's departure from the euro now seems almost inevitable, that should have only moderate consequences for well capitalised Canadian banks and the Canadian economy, even if the exit from... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate expectations still too high The recent hiking of market interest rate forecasts, which was prompted by the Bank of Canada's more hawkish policy statement a few weeks ago, looks increasingly like an over-reaction. While rate... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth set to rise this quarter before fall back We estimate that first-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualised from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to weaker growth in consumption and business investment in the first... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market cooling The Bank of Canada's recent heavy hint that interest rates may need to rise soon already looks badly timed. Little more than a week after the release of its latest Monetary Policy Report, which... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada hoping for the best The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report paints a fairly upbeat picture for GDP growth this year and next. We think that this is unlikely to materialise, however, mainly because of the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's exporters are not lagging behind Canada's export and overseas investment performances over the last two decades or so indicate in our view that Canadian businesses/exporters have actually done fairly well. This broader take on 'trade... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Buoyant commodity prices net positive for economy The upswing in commodity prices since the global economic slump over three years ago has been an important part of Canada's recent economic performance. This is highlighted by the positive... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fiscal austerity will dampen GDP growth this year Fiscal austerity measures across various levels of government will dampen economic growth this year. While the federal government's 2012 budget will have a relatively minor impact, the fiscal... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stronger GDP growth expected this quarter Our calculations suggest that Canada's economy, after growing by 1.8% annualised in the fourth quarter of last year, will grow this quarter by 2.5%. The main reason for this pick-up in economic growth... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Biggest downside risk still growing According to fourth-quarter financial flows and balance sheet data, household borrowing continues to expand at a pretty rapid pace. Even though the debt-to-income ratio may have fallen slightly in the... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
