Canada Economics Weekly Business investment outlook less encouraging Despite the global economic slowdown, Canadian business investment is just about holding up, largely thanks to the strength of engineering and construction projects. All things considered, we think... 22nd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Sluggish GDP growth likely to stay Disappointing third-quarter trade figures, both for exports and imports, suggests that even our own bearish view on quarterly GDP growth of 1.4% annualised might be too high. Barring significant... 15th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Odds stacking heavily against condo soft landing Slumping home sales is casting a dark shadow over prospects for new housing construction. Although the recent surge in multi-unit housing starts might sustain the elevated level of overall housing... 1st October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally looks overdone The recent surge in the Canadian dollar coincides neatly with the general rally in equity and commodity markets. The economic fundamentals that would typically justify this movement, however, are... 24th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stalling exports adds to economy's woes The surge in Canada's monthly trade deficit to a record high of C$2.34bn in July illustrated that the deteriorating global economic backdrop is beginning to have a very marked impact. The widening of... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What are the odds of an economic slump? The OECD is now forecasting that growth in the G7 economies will slump over the second half of this year, barely managing to stay in positive territory, before picking up materially next year... 7th September 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's current account deficit sound? Canada's current account deficit is likely to widen due to slower forecast global economic growth and lower commodity prices. That said, the large net financial deficit of households indicates that... 31st August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to increase Canada's employment gains during its economic recovery have been far from broad-based and bolstered by an oversized contribution from the public sector. In addition, the official unemployment rate... 24th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising interest rate expectations misplaced Market expectations of higher interest rates over the next 12 months look misplaced. The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with much of Europe in recession and the US economy facing a fiscal... 17th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Modest progress on "productive" investment The recent strength in imports of machinery and equipment suggest business investment is on a tear. Closer examination of productivity-boosting investment, however, suggests progress has been modest... 10th August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth continues to ease The anaemic rate of Canadian economic growth is becoming a major concern, particularly when the chances are that growth will only slow further in the second half of this year. Before the end of this... 3rd August 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Are consumers retreating? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's oil price rebounds, but will it last? Our measure of Canada's 'effective' crude oil price, a blend of three key benchmarks, has rebounded by a sharp 25% over the past few weeks, to US$88 p/b from US$70 p/b. But this rally in crude oil... 20th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth likely slowed in Q2 Canada's economy likely grew by a more modest 1.7% in the second quarter, down from the 1.9% pace recorded in each of the two quarters before that. We had expected GDP growth of 2.2% annualised, but... 13th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate cash piles could boost economic growth Canadian businesses are flush with cash. Even if just a small fraction of the cash held by the non-financial sector were used to boost dividends, we estimate it would significantly increase personal... 6th July 2012 · 1 min read
