Canada Economics Weekly Consensus clings to pick-up in exports and investment The underlying impetus for economic growth is fading. For 2013, we doubt that export and business investment growth will provide strong enough pillars to offset modest consumption growth, government... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better business optimism to prop up GDP The recent improvement in small and medium-sized business optimism concurs with our forecast that economic growth rebounded at the start of 2013. However, the underlying details of the survey suggest... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy grinding to a standstill? We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Considerable economic slack dampening inflation We think that the Bank of Canada has been underestimating the amount of slack in the economy, which explains why its recent quarterly inflation forecasts have erred on the high side. Looking ahead... 18th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What's the trigger for a house price correction? Those still looking for what might trigger a major house price correction in Canada need look no further than Vancouver's housing bubble, where house prices have already begun to deflate. The sudden... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar headed even lower At a global level, stock markets have been buoyed by signs that economic outlook is improving. Unfortunately, held back by weak domestic demand, low inflation and narrowing interest rate differentials... 4th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic slack likely to persist The Bank of Canada and International Monetary Fund still expect economic growth in Canada to accelerate through the course of this year. Admittedly, net exports are unlikely to remain a drag on GDP... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Decline in home prices still on the way The latest round of housing data released last week predictably led to more claims that the market is enjoying a soft landing because, even though home sales fell sharply over the second half of last... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is business uncertainty holding the economy back? The uncertainty created by the fragile global backdrop and the potential fight brewing over the US debt ceiling are hurting Canadian business investment, and will continue to hold the economy back in... 14th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falling inflation another concern for policymakers The slump in Canadian inflation over the second half of last year makes it even more likely that the Bank of Canada will soon abandon any pretence of hiking interest rates in 2013. Headline CPI... 7th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly How will 2013 differ from 2012? Our bearish call a year ago for moderate to weak GDP growth, subdued inflation and prolonged low interest rates is looking prescient now that the slumping housing market threatens to upset Canada's... 24th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the western provinces outperform in 2013? Canada's western provinces, which have outperformed most other provinces over the past two years, are likely to remain on top in 2013. High oil and other commodity prices should continue to benefit... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business spending renaissance won't improve productivity The recent improvement in business capital spending has prompted speculation that a business productivity renaissance is at hand. This seems like wishful thinking. The majority of the growth in recent... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy sector in a jam A rebound in Canadian energy production, which was hit by temporary disruptions in the third quarter, should ensure that GDP growth rebounds to around 1.5% annualised in the fourth quarter. The... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US housing recovery welcomed news for exporters The nascent US housing recovery is welcomed news for Canada's exporters, though a full fledged US economic recovery is likely to remain elusive for another year or two. Nonetheless, we anticipate some... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Government well positioned to weather storms The federal government's updated fiscal plan released last week, which reiterated the commitment to control program spending, is likely to come undone next year if, as we fear, economic growth slows... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
