Canada Economics Weekly Time running out for policymakers' hopes of rebalancing It is becoming more clear that sluggish global demand and volatile commodity prices will outlast the willingness and ability of households' to provide debt-fuelled support to economic growth. Without... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's housing downturn mirroring US slump Home building in Canada is on an ominous downward slope, similar in many ways to what happened in the early stages of the slump in the US. For this reason we think it is premature for policymakers to... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deflation alert Underlying inflation has fallen below the Bank of Canada's inflation 1% to 3% target range and could decline even further if the real economy underperforms this year. Accordingly, without additional... 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending less supportive to growth After shoring up economic growth over the second half of last year, economic indicators suggest that household consumption will be less supportive to growth over the first half of this year and... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's advance likely to fizzle out The Canadian dollar's recent advance is likely to fizzle out as it becomes clearer to the market that Canada's economy is actually losing momentum. We expect lower commodity prices and a severe... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New Bank Governor, same problems The announcement that Stephen Poloz will be the next Bank of Canada Governor came as something of a surprise, since the current number two at the Bank, Tiff Macklem, was widely tipped to take over... 6th May 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending abroad pinching domestic retail sales The recent softening in retail sales suggests that household consumption growth has slowed almost to a crawl. Our analysis shows that retailers are struggling partly because households, enticed by the... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank overly optimistic about economic outlook The Bank of Canada and, to a lesser extent, the International Monetary Fund still remain overly optimistic about Canada's economic growth outlook. The IMF has acknowledged, however, that the negative... 22nd April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing starts slump half way done The downward trend in housing starts is not over. While home builders continue to 'adjust' to softening housing demand, the oversupply of new unoccupied housing units are likely to become more... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing demand dashing hopes of spring rebound The Spring housing season is just getting underway but, unfortunately, hopes of a rebound in housing demand don't look promising. The affordability argument based on low mortgage rates isn't enticing... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Private sector forecasters still overly optimistic The latest survey of private sector forecasters, included in the recent Federal Budget, shows that they remain overly optimistic about the prospects for economic growth in 2013 and beyond. Ignoring... 1st April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Manufacturing still faces considerable headwinds While at some point the latest pick-up in the US economic recovery will translate into stronger Canadian manufacturing sales, we suspect that the weak pulse of the domestic economy will limit any... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak hourly earnings limits wage growth The strong pick-up in Labour Force Survey hours worked suggest that first-quarter wages and salaries growth should improve from the modest 2.4% annualised gain posted in the fourth quarter of last... 18th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consensus clings to pick-up in exports and investment The underlying impetus for economic growth is fading. For 2013, we doubt that export and business investment growth will provide strong enough pillars to offset modest consumption growth, government... 11th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better business optimism to prop up GDP The recent improvement in small and medium-sized business optimism concurs with our forecast that economic growth rebounded at the start of 2013. However, the underlying details of the survey suggest... 4th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Canada's economy grinding to a standstill? We estimate that Canada's economy grew by roughly 0.5% annualised over the entire second half of last year and is likely to perform little better over the first half of this year. Trade competiveness... 25th February 2013 · 1 min read
