Canada Economics Weekly Canada no longer the safe haven it was Attracted by relatively low government debt, a stronger economic recovery and its healthier banks, foreign investors took a shine to Canadian assets in the aftermath of the financial crisis. More... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability threatened by rising mortgage rates We expect mortgage rates to rise further this year, posing a threat to housing affordability for prospective home buyers. With average house prices already far too high relative to household incomes... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consensus overly optimistic on 2014 growth prospects The consensus view that economic growth will accelerate this year is misplaced. While exports and business investment should improve modestly, we anticipate this will be more than offset by weaker... 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mega-project investments unlikely to kick-in soon enough The many large-scale energy-related investment projects that are in the works are certainly an encouraging sign for the longer-term economic outlook. With many of these projects still awaiting final... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada still facing multitude of risks The Bank of Canada's latest semi-annual Financial System Review was a stark reminder that a lot could go wrong for Canada over the next year or two. While highlighting the progress in Europe, it now... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker Canadian dollar no panacea for economic blues The Bank of Canada's increasingly dovish stance explains only a small part of the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar. We think it has more to do with the pullback in commodity prices... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Currency depreciation will prevent deflation The recent softening in underlying inflation, which has been partly driven by the widening output gap, has triggered speculation that Canada faces the risk of a deflation developing, particularly if... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly OECD's call for higher interest rates misplaced The OECD's suggestion that the Bank of Canada may need to raise interest rates soon is misplaced for two reasons. First, it underestimates the amount of monetary policy stimulus that will be needed to... 25th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter mortgage rules could worsen future housing correction Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's latest threat to intervene in the housing market appears ill-timed. Although the recent pick-up in existing home sales points to some acceleration in house price... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil prices should bounce back soon The capacity constraints affecting cross-border pipelines and outages at major US refineries have caused a backup in Canadian oil inventories, temporarily depressing Canadian oil prices. But as these... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's descent not over The recent pullback in the Canadian dollar owes more to weaker domestic fundamentals rather than volatile commodity prices. With domestic economic conditions likely to remain sluggish through next... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Capacity constraints won't threaten higher inflation for years In addition to downgrading its economic outlook last week and postponing when it expects the economy to return to full capacity until late 2015, the Bank of Canada also lowered its estimate of... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is business investment turning a corner? We estimate that stronger business investment growth of close to 7.0% annualised helped to boost third-quarter GDP growth, possibly slightly above 2.0% annualised. It is important to stress, however... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New housing activity spread signalling slowdown ahead The historically high number of housing units under construction justifies the current strength of construction employment. But the negative spread between housing starts and completions signals that... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pent-up demand for new motor vehicles nearly exhausted The record new motor vehicle sales streak this year mainly reflects the ongoing unwinding of pent-up demand. With some pent-up demand still remaining, vehicle purchases are likely to improve somewhat... 4th October 2013 · 1 min read
