Canada Economics Weekly Higher bond yields mean more pain for housing The further rise in home listings in September and likelihood that mortgage rates will increase amid the global bond market sell-off suggests that house prices will soon fall again. While employment... 6th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly On the cusp of recession despite surging population The recent acceleration in immigration may not be enough to keep the economy afloat, with the latest data and surveys pointing to an increased chance that GDP will contract over the rest of the year. 29th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly “Higher for longer” more likely than another rate hike Given clearer signs of economic weakness in recent weeks, we think the surprise increase in underlying inflation pressures in August means the Bank of Canada is more likely to keep interest rates at... 25th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly No sign of immigration slowdown as opinion shifts A recent poll suggests that Canadians are growing sceptical of the government’s high immigration targets. Whether policy shifts or not, it is inevitable that net immigration will eventually slow from... 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem more confident that Bank will meet its target In his speech this week, Governor Tiff Macklem sounded much more confident that the Bank will be able to meet its 2% inflation target. The latest labour market and local housing data suggest that may... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to pause amid rising recession risks The surprise second-quarter contraction in GDP was partly due to the wildfires but, even without that damage, growth would have been very weak. With the August CFIB Business Barometer showing further... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Wildfires weighing on growth The worst Canadian wildfires on record appear to be behind much of the recent weakness in GDP and, with more areas now under evacuation orders, the data are likely to remain weak in the coming months. 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to remain on hold despite inflation rebound While the renewed rise in headline inflation in July seems concerning, a closer look shows disinflationary pressures are still building in key areas. Together with easing demand, that should give the... 18th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Data still consistent with soft(ish) landing Although export volumes fell for the second month running in June, the strength of imports suggests that domestic demand is holding up and the Bank of Canada will be pleased to see that import prices... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain on hold The further rise in the unemployment rate in July and signs that the housing market is cooling again are both reasons to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates further. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly September hike requires upside surprise The Bank of Canada’s Summary of Deliberations highlighted the Bank’s concern that inflation could become stuck above the 2% target. Although headline inflation faces a bumpy downward path over the... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation back at 2.0%, at least by one measure Headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June and, excluding mortgage interest costs, was in line with the 2.0% target. While the Bank’s preferred core measures are still higher, the weakness of retail... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hawkish hike still likely to be the last in this cycle The Bank of Canada struck a hawkish tone at its meeting this week, emphasising persistent excess demand and sticky price inflation. Nonetheless, with the upgrades to the Bank’s GDP and inflation... 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply of both labour and housing improves The data this week showed big improvements in supply in both the labour and housing markets, which should give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI inflation will continue to decline. We still... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Case for July hike less compelling There was plenty for the Bank of Canada to digest this week, with the data showing that core inflation fell in May even as GDP growth picked up strongly again. The resilience of economic activity... 30th June 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly July rate hike still looking likely The latest Summary of Deliberations gave no hint about whether the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates again at the July meeting but, with little progress yet on any of the key factors that the... 23rd June 2023 · 6 mins read