Canada Economics Weekly Canada's export engine still spluttering Canada's exports have continued to underperform, despite gradually improving US economic conditions and the fall in the previously high-flying Canadian dollar. Although the bad weather partly explains... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Regional disparity a dilemma for the Bank of Canada Canada's uneven regional economic performance presents a dilemma for the Bank of Canada. While natural resource-rich provinces flourished last year, those that are reliant on manufacturing struggled... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising retail gasoline prices no conundrum The recent jump in gasoline prices isn’t a conundrum. Several explanatory factors are at play, including seasonal effects. But for the most part, rising gasoline prices reflect higher refinery crude... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Q2 economic rebound will mask deteriorating fundamentals As the effects of the severe winter weather subside in the second quarter, the resulting bounce back in GDP growth could be misinterpreted as a sign of improving fundamentals rather than a short-lived... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada stuck between a rock and a hard place Canada's economic performance over the second half of last year was slightly stronger than the Bank of Canada had assumed at the start of the year, but there have been few signs of the rotation in... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rising wage growth no threat to the inflation outlook The recent acceleration in wage inflation is an encouraging sign, especially considering the excess slack in labour markets and still uncertain economic outlook. For these and other reasons, however... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mortgage rate cuts won't trigger housing rally The decision by Canada's large banks to cut fixed mortgage rates ahead of the typically busy Spring home buying season won't boost sagging home sales. With housing so unaffordable, mortgage rates... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Demographics to weigh on economic growth and interest rates In his speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz argued that the legacy of the financial crisis and demographic changes can explain Canada's recent lacklustre economic performance. More... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Idle industrial capacity likely to grow further The fall in manufacturing capacity utilisation over the past year casts further doubt over the Bank of Canada's expectation that the external sector can take over from households in driving economic... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada takes more hawkish line The recent rise in inflation prompted the Bank of Canada to take a slightly more hawkish stance in its policy statement last week. At 1.5% in January, inflation is still well below the mid-point of... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Rebalancing still a distant pipe dream The Bank of Canada admitted in January's monetary policy statement that "there have been few signs of the anticipated rebalancing towards exports and business investment." Not much has changed since... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fourth-quarter economic performance won't be sustained Canada's economic performance over the final quarter of last year was probably the best in more than two years. The breakdown, however, is likely to show that the economy is still heavily dependent on... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing starts likely to fall further this year Although housing starts have declined over the past two years, the current six-month annualised trend of 191,456 units is arguably still above demographic requirements. With weakening home sales and... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Improvement in export growth to be modest The breakdown of Canada's sluggish export performance reveals that some of the weakness in the second half of last year should prove temporary. The persistent weakness in some industries such as autos... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada can't ignore emerging market turmoil The recent turmoil in emerging markets is a knock to Canada's trade and commodity dependent economy that the Bank of Canada can't ignore. Although it has only had a modest negative impact on Canada's... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar due for a temporary bounce The Canadian dollar's sharp decline over the past few weeks seems a tad overdone and we wouldn't be surprised if it enjoyed a modest rebound over the coming month or so. As the incoming economic data... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
