Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household balance sheet risks unevenly spread The latest Survey of Financial Security reveals that household balance sheet risks have increased and the burden of that risk is concentrated among individuals in the 35 to 44 age bracket. Enamoured... 2nd February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rate cuts possible, but won't help economy much The Bank of Canada's surprise quarter point rate cut to 0.75% last week, which came in response to the collapse in world oil prices, will only have a small positive impact on the economy. Unless oil... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is there a bright side to the collapse in oil prices? The bright side of the recent collapse in oil prices is the sinking Canadian dollar, which will encourage stronger US demand for cheaper Canadian goods and services. More generally, the collapse in... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil price spells danger for Canadian economy The lower global crude oil prices fall, the bigger the negative impact will be for a net exporter like Canada. Alongside the severely overvalued housing market, the collapse in oil prices is a major... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Can the Bank of Canada fight the US Fed? Household imbalances, an uneven export recovery and, more recently, the slump in oil prices are all downside risks to the economic and inflation outlook. That's three reasons for the Bank of Canada to... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slump in oil prices leaves housing looking even more exposed The Bank of Canada admitted last week that the housing market has completely overshot and that the overvaluation is somewhere in the range of 10% to 30%. If we had to pick a number, it would be close... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pick-up in core inflation won't be sustained The pick-up in the official core inflation measure this year is partly due to one-off factors. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada also pays close attention to alternative measures of underlying... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Financial conditions index overstates prospects for GDP growth The Bank of Canada's revamped monetary conditions index signals that financial conditions looser than they have been for most of the past 15 years. Normally GDP growth would be expected to accelerate... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Employment bonanza looks like another false start We suspect that the jobs bonanza over the past two months does not signal an upturn in the economy. The impressive 117,200 positions created in September and October was the strongest two-month... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Upward revisions to historical GDP don't improve outlook Although the level of GDP over the past three and a half years has been revised noticeably higher, the more recent growth rates of GDP were left largely unchanged. Moreover, the expenditure breakdown... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Still waiting for that elusive economic rebound The recent run of weak data confirms that the economy fared even worse in August after barely growing in July. Encouragingly, leading indicators point to a spectacular rebound in September, though it... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Decline in oil prices still no major threat The further slide in world crude oil prices has prompted speculation that Canada's booming energy sector may soon swing into reverse, dragging the economy under with it. But even if oil prices remain... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price slump shouldn't threaten domestic producers Canada's position as a large energy net exporter obviously means that it is exposed to any slump in world oil prices. Should the recent slump in oil prices persist, then that would certainly leave its... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
