Canada Economics Weekly Upward revisions to historical GDP don't improve outlook Although the level of GDP over the past three and a half years has been revised noticeably higher, the more recent growth rates of GDP were left largely unchanged. Moreover, the expenditure breakdown... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack likely to persist Indicators show that labour market conditions have deteriorated over the past year or so. The actual amount of slack in the labour market, though, appears to be less than we previously thought. But... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Still waiting for that elusive economic rebound The recent run of weak data confirms that the economy fared even worse in August after barely growing in July. Encouragingly, leading indicators point to a spectacular rebound in September, though it... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Decline in oil prices still no major threat The further slide in world crude oil prices has prompted speculation that Canada's booming energy sector may soon swing into reverse, dragging the economy under with it. But even if oil prices remain... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price slump shouldn't threaten domestic producers Canada's position as a large energy net exporter obviously means that it is exposed to any slump in world oil prices. Should the recent slump in oil prices persist, then that would certainly leave its... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Durability of economic recovery still in doubt After a slow start to the year, partly due to bad weather, the recent run of good data since then indicate that the economy continued to grow well above its potential annualised growth rate of 2.0% in... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher capacity utilisation rate overstates economic conditions In his first 100 days in office, Egypt’s President al- Sisi has made more progress in tackling the country’s economic problems than many, including ourselves, had expected. In particular, his... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian auto sector an unlikely growth source While the recent surge in new motor vehicle sales is an encouraging sign of household confidence perhaps, we think it is more likely a weather-related bounce back from the slowdown earlier this year... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage cost inflation likely fell to record low Although some evidence suggests that hourly wages may have risen more quickly recently, labour productivity has also risen as well, resulting in smaller increases in unit labour costs, or slower wage... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter economic rebound won't be sustained Canada's economic rebound in the second quarter mainly reflects a bounce-back after bad winter weather dampened economic activity in the first quarter of this year and certain one-off factors that... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slack in labour market has increased Canadian labour market conditions appear to have deteriorated over the past year and a half, even though the unemployment rate has been unchanged. While net employment gains have been unusually weak... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unlikely to take aim at rising currency While the Bank of Canada's hopes for an export revival could be thwarted by the recent resurgence in the Canadian dollar, it has few options other than cutting interest rates to try and turn things... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better second-quarter GDP growth unlikely to be sustained The lacklustre pace of economic growth in the spring suggests that the economy is still misfiring. As things stand now, we estimate that the economy grew by only 2.0% annualised in the second quarter... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fears of skilled worker shortages overdone While labour force retirements and shifting educational preferences among younger people may have contributed to a recent shortage of skilled trade workers in certain industries or regions, our... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read