Canada Economics Weekly Second quarter rebound unlikely to be convincing After a dismal turn in the first quarter of the year, the economy should perform somewhat better in the second quarter, but the pace of growth is likely to be unspectacular. With growth of no more... 8th June 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower loonie's influence on core inflation waning While headline inflation has fallen sharply due to lower energy prices, the boost to core inflation from the lower Canadian dollar may fade sooner than most realise. Wholesale price inflation, which... 29th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt becoming a burden The all-clear siren sounded by the Fraser Institute last week on household debt is misleading. The debt service metric they use only captures the interest cost portion of debt, which completely misses... 25th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Construction employment losses likely only beginning The recent job losses in the construction sector are likely only a precursor of what's in store for the year ahead. Falling energy investment and cooling housing demand could form the perfect storm... 18th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Record current account deficit a cause for concern Canada's growing current account deficit probably hit a record high in the first quarter, as the impact of the recent slump in oil prices hit export revenues. The lower Canadian dollar will help to... 11th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz singing from same old hymn book In his appearance before the House of Commons Finance Committee last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reassured policymakers that the economy is showing signs of progress and that the... 4th May 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Pace of payroll job gains likely to slow The faster pace of payroll job gains might normally be a more trustworthy gauge of labour market trends than the more volatile Labour Force Survey employment figures. The slowdown in real GDP growth... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada doubles down on growth outlook The Bank of Canada's policy statement last week showed that it isn't willing to fold on its optimistic growth predictions, despite being dealt a bad card in the first quarter. Instead, it decided to... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker currency will partly cushion hit from low oil prices The Canadian dollar, which has slumped in response to low oil prices, weakening domestic fundamentals and an easing in monetary policy, probably still has further to fall. An even weaker currency... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly January's soft GDP likely the calm before the storm While the modest decline in January's GDP was a better result than most economists had feared, we suspect that this may just be the calm before the storm. The continued collapse in oil & gas drilling... 7th April 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Impact of oil price shock bigger than most think The collapse in domestic drilling activity, triggered by the slump in oil prices, which has been compounded by another year of unseasonably bad winter weather, has been severe enough to indicate that... 31st March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy likely to struggle for longer than others expect After slowing in the final quarter of last year, the economy appears to have lost considerably more momentum this quarter, with GDP growth likely to be no better than 1.0% annualised, below the... 23rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar will remain down for a long time The slump in crude oil prices has changed the Bank of Canada's game plan and, we fear, could prove to be the trigger that bursts the housing bubble, derailing the economy in the process. Under these... 16th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional interest rate cuts still in the pipeline The Bank of Canada's decision to hold rates unchanged at 0.75% last week will have convinced some that there isn't another rate cut in the pipeline. Nevertheless, we still think we could see another... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada will still cut rates further Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signalled last week that he thought the January interest rate cut was enough insurance against downside risks for the time being. That confirmed our existing view... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids deflation... at least for now This week we expect to learn on Thursday that headline CPI inflation fell to 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, principally because of the slump in energy prices last month. With crude oil and retail... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
