Canada Economics Weekly Consumption growth likely to slow The recent pick-up in consumer spending growth suggests at first glance that households are in a position to carry the economy once again this year. But closer examination of the underlying trends in... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Q2 slowdown isn’t just about Alberta wildfires After a strong start to the year, the economy likely ended the first quarter badly and we now believe that it shrank significantly this quarter, partly because of significant disruptions to oil... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More survey evidence of bleak growth prospects The dangerous wildfires that broke out in Alberta earlier this month haven’t changed the dismal outlook for economic growth this year. As the increasing amount of survey evidence indicates, the much... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally isn’t a major threat to GDP growth Canada’s economy certainly has its growth challenges ahead, but the recent rally in the Canadian dollar isn’t a major threat to the economic growth outlook, partly because it has been accompanied by a... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some things to keep in mind about Q1 GDP The strength of recent monthly GDP data has prompted some forecasters to revise up their growth forecasts for this year as a whole. But predictions of an acceleration in growth are, to our minds at... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Our key calls for this year Despite the recent resurgence in economic growth, we still expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again, albeit not until much later this year. While widening interest rate differentials... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Liberal’s infrastructure spending won’t boost economy The Liberal government’s budget plan to lift the economy over the next two years with close to C$12bn in infrastructure funding will be a tall task, one that we would not count on to produce much... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally won’t be sustained The recent rally in the Canadian dollar, which has been driven by rising oil prices and downgrades to the outlook for US interest rates, is unlikely to last beyond the middle of this year. Admittedly... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the end of the housing boom near? The housing boom has been a key support to the economy over the past few years, but its end is in sight. While media headlines focus on the continuing booms in Toronto and Vancouver, the fallout in... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit paranoia is mind-bogglingly stupid The hysterical response to the news that the Federal budget deficit might increase to as much as $30bn next year left us shaking our heads in dismay. Canadian economists are still stuck in the Paul... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stubbornly high inflation adding to the pain The rebound in headline inflation in January back to the mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range illustrates that the markedly weaker Canadian dollar isn’t all good news. Strong goods... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Mexico eating Canada’s lunch? Our analysis suggests that the weakness of Canadian manufacturing output is partly due to the knock-on drag from the collapse in the mining sector. In addition, however, Canadian manufacturers are... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market turmoil adds to downside risks to economic growth With the economy reeling from the collapse in oil prices, the rapid deterioration in global financial conditions couldn’t have come at a worse time. The balance of risks to our forecast that GDP... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Negative interest rates unlikely in Canada While negative interest rate policies are being adopted by some major central banks, economic growth and inflation in Canada will be buffered by fiscal policy stimulus and the past depreciation of the... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
