Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada quiet on monetary policy options In a strange speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz acknowledged that the so-called neutral real interest rate was now much lower than before the financial crisis. But in his prepared... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt continues to rise The focus remained on the nation’s housing boom last week, with figures released showing that house prices continued to rise rapidly last month, even as home sales fell further in the aftermath of the... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble still a tale of two cities The reported 23% y/y decline in Vancouver home sales in August unsurprisingly prompted claims in the media last week that the new foreign buyer tax, which took effect at the start of last month, had a... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Does it make sense to raise the inflation target? The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting this Wednesday. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in its... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2 Our calculations suggest that monthly GDP rebounded by 0.5% m/m in June which, if GDP in the first two months of the quarter was unrevised, would translate into a 1.5% annualised decline in the second... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Have home sales peaked? The surge in the annual rate of house price inflation to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflected a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The recent... 19th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is another rate cut coming sooner than we thought? Right now it is hard to find anything positive to say about Canada’s economy. Around the start of this year things seemed to be going in the right direction; with non-energy exports on a tear and the... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Export growth muted even without a trade war The economy’s reliance on trade with the US means that the current US presidential election campaign could be pivotal for Canada’s export outlook. The big question is whether a President Trump would... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble The B.C. government’s announcement last week that it intends to impose a 15% tax on home purchases by foreign investors is unlikely to topple Vancouver’s housing bubble. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Extent of wildfire disruption about to become clearer This is the week that we will finally discover just how badly the economy was hit by the Alberta wildfires in May, which caused the shutdown of the majority of oil production in the Fort McMurray area... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Participation rate will fall further The decline in the unemployment rate to an 11-month low of 6.8% in June, from 7.1% as recently as April, is not as good as it looks. It went down primarily because people gave up looking for work not... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment not coming to the rescue The latest Bank of Canada surveys support our view that falling business investment, particularly in the oil and gas sector, will weigh on the economy in the second half of the year. Making matters... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Brexit is the least of Canada’s worries The UK referendum vote to leave the European Union has triggered a renewed turmoil in financialmarkets, but we doubt the decision will damage Canada’s economy in any meaningful way. Despitethe strong... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth continues to misfire This week we expect to learn that monthly real GDP increased by a muted 0.1% m/m in April. Given that GDP contracted in both February and March, however, that would represent a disappointing rebound... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House price gains fuelled by increasingly risky mortgages The news last week of a further acceleration in house price growth in Toronto and Vancouver in May followed hot on the heels of the warning from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz that “the... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy production other shoe to drop Despite the rebound in oil prices this year, domestic energy producers don’t appear to believe in a sustainable recovery judging by the further decline in oil & gas drilling rig activity. Falling... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
