Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada focused on US rather than domestic risks Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz surprised the markets last week with his admission that an interest rate cut was still “on the table” if one of the Bank’s downside risks became reality. The... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar being buffeted by opposing forces With commodity prices and interest rate differentials pulling the Canadian dollar in different directions again this year, our baseline scenario is that it will remain broadly unchanged, increasing... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth misfiring again Even allowing for the rebound in real exports in November, the 0.3% m/m decline in monthly GDP in October means that fourth-quarter GDP growth was probably 1.0% annualised or less, putting it well... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour market slack increasing Nowhere is the lingering damage to the economy caused by the commodity price slump more evident than in the labour market. Unemployment is still rising sharply in the worst-affected regions, while... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks While it continues to warn about growing housing imbalances and risky mortgage lending, the Bank of Canada still believes there is only a low probability of a major housing correction happening... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Service sector growth to slow next year Despite the fallout from the slump in oil-related business investment, the service sector enjoyed relatively strong growth over the past two years, mainly because of an acceleration in housing... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly The other shoe just dropped The rebound in third-quarter GDP mainly reflects volatility in energy production rather than any fundamental improvement in the economy. Excluding energy, GDP has been growing at less than 1%... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate profits still point to sluggish economy The latest corporate profit figures show that, despite the energy-related rebound in the third-quarter, the economy isn’t out of the woods yet. While higher oil prices in the short term will help the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tighter financial conditions may prompt rate cut Although the Canadian dollar has weakened further lately, financial conditions overall appear to be tightening now because of rising market interest rates and new stricter mortgage rules. Given the... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump win could still be bad for Canada The rebound in financial markets following Donald Trump’s conciliatory acceptance speech is a positive sign for Canada’s economy. But his personal volatility and still potentially harsh views on trade... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Infrastructure bank will only create more bureaucracy The Liberal government’s plan to create a national infrastructure bank is a recipe for greater bureaucracy rather than a remedy for improving longer-term economic prospects. Existing public agencies... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Canada be more transparent? The mixed messages coming from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last week, which caused a stir in financial markets and the media, makes us wonder if, like most other major central banks, the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing Although the Bank of Canada gave no indication in last week’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, Governor Stephen Poloz freely admitted in his press conference that an... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recent job gains appear to be very low quality The massive 67,200 increase in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of employment in September would seem to suggest that labour market conditions are improving. But under the surface there is a... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the latest mortgage rule changes derail housing? The housing market dominated the headlines again last week, with news of another sharp decline in Vancouver home sales in September accompanied by the announcement of a package of new measures on... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line During the first US presidential debate last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump predictably returned to one of the central themes of his campaign; that the US is being cheated by global trade rules... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
