Canada Economics Weekly Softwood lumber dispute isn’t start of potential trade war The decision by the US Commerce Department to impose preliminary import duties of close to 20% on Canadian softwood lumber isn’t a big surprise to domestic producers, nor will it seriously threaten... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly IMF naïve on Canada outlook The International Monetary Fund’s latest assessment of Canadian growth prospects is unfortunately naïve. Although the economy expanded strongly at the start of this year, that was partly due to the... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank won’t raise interest rates to cool housing speculation The Bank of Canada confessed this week that speculation is partly responsible for the recent upswing in house prices, but doesn’t believe that higher interest rates are a solution to the problem. The... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth looking very uneven The uneven incoming data reinforce our view that the economy hasn’t turned the corner. Exports continue to misfire, which isn’t encouraging for hopes of a recovery in business investment. Meanwhile... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Markets getting ahead of themselves on rate outlook Financial markets appear to be ignoring the Bank of Canada’s latest warnings about the uncertain economic outlook and are pricing in an interest rate hike before the end of this year. In contrast, we... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly First-quarter GDP growth blitz unlikely to be sustained The recent run of positive economic data suggest that growth in first-quarter GDP could turn out to be as high as 3.0% annualised, stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.5%. The underlying... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slow growth in labour earnings likely to persist Recent headline employment gains, mainly in full-time work, have been impressive. It turns out that most of the job creation over the past year have been in industries where hours worked are below... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Residential investment still boosting economy Residential housing investment rebounded in the final quarter of last year and looks set to grow at an even faster pace this quarter, thanks to a surge in housing construction. While that will provide... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth firming, but downside risks abound The recent upturn in production activity and business confidence are encouraging signs for near-term growth prospects. There are still some big question marks, however. While first-quarter real GDP... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tweaking US trade deficits no concern to Canada The potential changes to US trade balance statistics being considered by the US administration has raised eyebrows in Canada. But no matter how Trump’s administration wants to tweak the data, the US... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Move-up buyers inflating housing bubble Toronto’s growing housing bubble is being blamed on desperate first-time buyers chasing a dwindling inventory of homes for sale, but that’s a red herring. The truth is that it’s mainly being driven by... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing imbalances worsening While the housing investment boom helped support the economy through the oil shock last year, the further deterioration in housing affordability will likely cost the economy in the longer run. The... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty Incoming data indicate that the economy has emerged from the oil price shock, with encouraging signs in business confidence pointing to faster economic growth over the next six months. As things stand... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA on the brink Canada has a strong hand to play in the upcoming negotiations over the NAFTA agreement. With Canadian-US trade broadly balanced and the US reliant on Canadian energy exports, we suspect that the Trump... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada focused on US rather than domestic risks Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz surprised the markets last week with his admission that an interest rate cut was still “on the table” if one of the Bank’s downside risks became reality. The... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar being buffeted by opposing forces With commodity prices and interest rate differentials pulling the Canadian dollar in different directions again this year, our baseline scenario is that it will remain broadly unchanged, increasing... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
