Canada Economics Weekly Households still living the high life Household consumption grew very strongly in the second quarter, supported by a further decline in the household saving rate and an acceleration in household borrowing. In the tougher banking... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada will be up against it in NAFTA talks Canada’s trade demands heading into the historic NAFTA renegotiations this week didn’t appear to be overly ambitious, in contrast to the much more aggressive approach adopted by the US. Nevertheless... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply shortage doesn’t explain high housing valuations Housing bulls argue that the surge in house prices in recent years and the current strength of new home construction are justified by strong population growth in Canada, but the data suggest otherwise... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy seemingly unfazed by housing slowdown Despite softening home sales, the incoming data point to solid GDP growth in the second quarter, possibly outpacing the 3.7% q/q annualised rate posted in the first quarter. Needless to say, the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher Canadian dollar no threat to economy The two-month rally in the Canadian dollar, from US$0.73 to US$0.80, doesn’t pose any direct threat to the economy, particularly given the significant decline in the real trade-weighted exchange rate... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end The rally in the Canadian dollar to a 14-month high of US$0.79, from US$0.74 a month ago, is likely to fade before year end. While higher oil prices might allow a temporary lift in the coming months... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing slump going from bad to worse Despite widespread claims by housing pundits that Vancouver’s housing market is recovering from last year’s slump, the incoming data continue to show home sales floundering. More importantly, home... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank can’t ignore low inflation The Bank of Canada’s recent hawkishness doesn’t fit with the weaker core inflation data. Amid further warnings from the BIS about the dangers of sticking too closely to inflation targets when asset... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly House price inflation set to plunge Housing was top of the agenda at a meeting of federal and provincial policymakers earlier this week, amid signs that the Bank of Canada is perhaps preparing to hike interest rates. Meanwhile, with... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hike is far from a done deal The Bank of Canada mentioned this week that the economy is gathering momentum and indicated that it is considering hiking interest rates soon, prompting financial markets to quickly raise bets on a... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market on the brink The housing market appears on the verge of a downturn and will negatively impact economic growth from the second quarter onwards. Although Vancouver home sales have rebounded in recent past months, we... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Nothing inspiring about recent GDP growth The recent flurry of strong economic growth may look impressive but, looking beneath the surface, there’s still a lot to worry about. While the extraordinary housing investment boom has set new... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bond yields to rebound Given the recent ominous signs of a downturn in Toronto, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will be able to do much to prevent a correction in the housing market. The Bank of Canada only has limited... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment still weak The economy has grown strongly over the past few quarters and business confidence has risen. On closer examination, however, business investment has fallen to historically low levels, partly because... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar unlikely to sink much lower The recent drop in the Canadian dollar to US$0.73, from US$0.75, presumably reflects new fears of a global oil supply glut, which have been weighing on crude oil prices. Although this downward... 12th May 2017 · 1 min read
