Canada Economics Weekly Shrinking household wealth another problem The latest balance sheet data show that household indebtedness is even worse than previously thought, but the bigger problem now is that falling home values have begun to erode household net worth... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage pressures still muted The latest wage data indicate that there’s little risk of inflation overshooting the Bank’s 2% inflation target anytime soon. For this reason among others, the Bank has nothing to gain by raising... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Census data shed more light on low inflation The latest batch of Census data released earlier this week on the labour market cast doubt over the quality of the jobs created since the 2008-09 recession. There are still signs of prime-aged workers... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Legalisation of marijuana not without risks to economy The legalisation and regulation of marijuana next year will not significantly improve the economic growth outlook, although legitimising a previously black market industry will provide a modest one... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada already doubting itself Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkin’s speech earlier this week suggested that the Bank of Canada is already beginning to doubt its earlier upbeat assessment of the economic outlook, which was behind its... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada likely on hold until well into 2018 Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s speech earlier this week was too dismissive of the current weakness of underlying inflation, although that isn’t a surprise given the Bank’s interest rate hikes... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic outlook deteriorates The incoming monthly data suggest that economic growth faltered in the third quarter. The news isn’t all bad, but growth prospects for the fourth quarter are somewhat weaker than the third. And... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home ownership rate could tumble The unprecedented upswing in the national home ownership rate, fuelled in large part by a credit boom, appears to have peaked and is now going into reverse, even though the aging population should be... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth slowing Despite net external trade being a drag, the economy managed to grow by close to 2.0% q/q annualised in the third quarter, partly thanks to a big rebound in non-residential buildings investment... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Life without NAFTA wouldn't be catastrophic The most important data releases next week are the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and consumer prices. Following its decision to start raising interest rates this year, the Bank will be... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tougher mortgage rules will only make matters worse Federal banking regulators decision to forge ahead with recent proposals to tighten mortgage rules further will only make matters much worse for the already faltering housing market. Needless to say... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Aerospace dispute raises spectre of trade war The US Commerce Department’s preliminary decision to slap prohibitive countervailing duties on Canadian aerospace firm Bombardier threatens to cause a major trade spat between Canada and the US... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household indebtedness highest among G7 The strong GDP performance over the first half of the year means that Canada will probably finish at the top of the G7 growth ladder this year. More worryingly, however, it also takes first place when... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly At least income inequality isn’t getting worse The latest Census data show that average growth in the median total income of households was disappointing over 2005 to 2015 which might, we suspect, prompt renewed speculation of worsening income... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Storm clouds gathering in Canada too The housing investment boom may have breathed its last gasp last quarter. With existing home sales floundering and average sale prices dropping, tighter mortgage financing rules and ill-timed interest... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth bound to slow after blazing pace in H1 Although the real economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth still appears to be overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
