Canada Economics Weekly Housing market remains muted Earlier this week we learned that, according to Teranet, national house price inflation slowed to a two-year low of 6.6% in March, from 7.5% in February and a recent peak of 14.2% in mid-2017. Based... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA deal wouldn't lead to higher interest rates The US administration appears to be pushing hard to get a deal done on NAFTA, reigniting speculation of further interest rate increases from the Bank of Canada. Even if a trade deal is done, however... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Labour data point to slower consumption growth The incoming labour market data provide further evidence of a potential household-led slowdown in economic growth this quarter. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada won’t risk increasing... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Heavy oil price benchmark likely to rebound Prices of domestic heavy crude oil appear to be going sideways, despite rising world oil prices. This trend has persisted for a few months, but there are still good reasons to believe that these heavy... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Middle-class families still struggling The 2016 Canadian Income Survey shows that the median household hasn’t benefitted meaningfully from economic growth in recent years. Real incomes of middle-class families have been largely stagnant... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar's underperformance to persist The Canadian dollar rebounded yesterday following the confirmation that Canada’s economy will be exempt from US tariffs on steel and aluminium. It isn’t out of the woods yet, however. NAFTA’s future... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining tax competitiveness hurting investment The 2018 Federal budget delivered earlier this week, which kept corporate income tax rates unchanged, failed to address the unease among executives about business taxation, in light of the large tax... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending losing momentum There are some tentative signs that the past tightening in mortgage rules and increase in interest rates are beginning to have an impact beyond housing by negatively impacting household spending too... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation to remain muted Global bond markets have been shaken by the recent run of stronger wage and price inflation figures in the US. Although we have long expected that a rebound in core inflation south of the border would... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing faces tighter regulation and higher rates The early regional evidence from Toronto and Vancouver revealed that the tightening of mortgage lending standards at the start of this year did hit home sales in January, but the declines were not... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth to slow in 2018 The Canadian economy had a pretty good year in 2017, with GDP growth accelerating to 2.9%, up from 1.4% in 2016 and only 1.0% in 2015. But last year was a tale of two halves, with exceptionally strong... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise The Canadian dollar hit 81 cents against the US dollar earlier this week but, rather than blaming the loonie’s rally on the Bank of Canada and its recent interest rate hike, the rebound appears to be... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes likely to be undone before long The Bank of Canada’s upgraded GDP growth forecast for this year looks overly optimistic given NAFTA and housing-related risks. Despite further increases in household borrowing costs and tougher new... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA? The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Minimum wage hikes are a storm in a teacup Minimum wage hikes this year won’t have significant consequences for the broader economy or inflation, nor do they change the interest rate outlook one way or the other. As we have warned before, the... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Foreigners aren't to blame for high house prices New housing data showing that non-residents account for only a small fraction of the housing stock and claims that these foreigners aren’t to blame for high housing prices have been meet with ridicule... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
