Canada Economics Weekly Morneau gets competitive; Bank ponders framework The increased depreciation tax allowance in the fall update was generally well received by businesses, but the recent slump in oil prices means that it is unlikely to prevent investment growth from... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie proves resilient to slump in oil prices The slump in oil prices this week is undoubtedly bad for the economy, but we’re not convinced by reports of an imminent 6% cut in oil production. While the loonie proved resilient to the drop in oil... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Doubts about USMCA, positive signs from housing While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly PMI hints at slowing momentum While the data this week revealed that GDP was better than expected in August, the growth rate nevertheless slowed. Combined with September’s trade data which showed a fall in manufacturing exports... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank aiming for at least three more hikes As well as hiking interest rates to 1.75% this week, the Bank of Canada explicitly confirmed that it intends to raise the policy rate back to its estimate of the neutral rate. We doubt it will make it... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly From pot to Poloz After the legalisation of cannabis this week, next week the spotlight turns to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement. The Bank looks set to raise interest rates for the third time this year... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slumping Canadian oil prices to dampen investment The steep falls in equities this week are bad enough, but it is the collapse in Canadian oil prices that could have more significant macroeconomic effects. If the capacity constraints that have caused... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly USMCA boosts rates, adding pressure to housing The changes to Canada’s trading relationship with the US and Mexico do not, on their own, have big implications for the economy. By removing uncertainty, the agreement will help to keep economic... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Auto tariffs a risk as trade talks drag on Comments from US President Donald Trump this week gave little indication that he is about to trigger the six-month NAFTA withdrawal period, but there is a rising risk of the US imposing auto tariffs... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA talks drag on; housing remains vulnerable The NAFTA negotiations between Canada and the US rumbled on this week, with few signs of a breakthrough during what Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland described as a “continuous negotiation”... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada plays down trade risks While the Bank of Canada this week acknowledged the uncertainty created by the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, it also played down the risks of a further deterioration in trade relations. However, given... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada to take spotlight from NAFTA talks While the US and Canada are aiming to reach a compromise over NAFTA today, at this stage it’s still unclear whether this will happen. Either way, next week the Bank of Canada will take the spotlight... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Spending growth set to slow Consumer spending growth appears to have rebounded to about 2% annualised in the second quarter. But with real wage gains set to slow further, even that fairly-moderate growth rate seems unlikely to... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falls in commodity prices highlight external risks The declines in commodity prices this week following the crisis in Turkey highlighted the connections that make Canada more vulnerable than many advanced economies to developments elsewhere in the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Saudi storm won’t cause economic damage The sudden escalation in political tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia this week seems alarming, but investors are right not to fret about the consequences. After all, Canada sends just 0.2% of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
