Canada Economics Weekly Morneau gambles on the housing market In his 2019 budget Finance Minister Bill Morneau revealed extra spending amounting to a modest 0.2% of GDP, which will not materially change the outlook. By introducing a policy to help first-time... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2019 unlikely to drive pick-up in growth In the 2019 Budget, Finance Minister Bill Morneau is likely to announce some headline-grabbing policies to please voters ahead of October’s federal election. We doubt that they will amount to much in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank rows back from further rate hikes The Bank of Canada admitted this week that it had been caught out by the broad-based nature of the recent economic slowdown. But its forecasts continue to envisage a strong rebound in growth, which we... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Optimistic investment plans unlikely to be met The Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures survey revealed that firms expect to raise their investment by 2.8% this year. However, with the economic backdrop deteriorating since the survey was carried... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Uncertain Poloz ponders powers Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz used a speech this week to argue that relying on monetary policy alone to counteract economic downturns risks further stoking financial imbalances. While Poloz... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil by rail exports plummet, USMCA hurdles mount Alberta’s oil production cuts have successfully reduced the Canadian oil price discount compared with US benchmarks, but their success has produced some unintended negative consequences. 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak housing market weighs on credit growth Data this week confirmed that annual mortgage credit growth slowed to a 35-year low of just 3.1% in December, with the slowdown reflecting subdued home sales and lower house price inflation. More... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wilkins keeps quiet on rate hikes, GDP contracts Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins this week outlined the Bank of Canada’s thinking on wage growth. But by failing to repeat the Bank’s normal mantra about raising interest rates further, what... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak November a sign of things to come At Davos this week, Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated that the Bank of Canada will remain data dependent with respect to the pace of future interest rate hikes. With GDP set to have contracted in... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales fall, inflation to drop back The data this week confirmed that Canadian home sales finished 2018 on a weak note, while inflation jumped back up to 2% at the end of the year. Housing sales are unlikely to rebound strongly, while... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s thinking full of holes Governor Stephen Poloz struck a positive tone following the Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged this week. Although officials remain optimistic, we think there are flaws in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Challenging landscape greets Bank of Canada Officials at the Bank of Canada face a challenging landscape when they meet next week. Not only have global markets been volatile, but the Canadian yield curve has moved closer to inversion territory... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz maintains upbeat tone despite oil price slump In an interview this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz seemed fairly relaxed about the economic outlook. But with inflationary pressures fading, oil prices falling again and exporters... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian oil price rally will soon lose steam While Canadian oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, we expect discounts against international oil benchmarks to widen again next year, which will weigh heavily on energy investment and economic... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank wants to hike, but doesn’t know when The Bank of Canada reiterated this week that it intends to raise the policy rate at least three more times, but acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the pace of those hikes. Investors appear to be... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to Bank of Canada This week’s media coverage painted far too positive a picture of foreign direct investment in Canada, which remains lower than a year ago and after the recent slump in oil prices is likely to... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
