Canada Economics Weekly Bank welcomes its newest asset The government confirmed this week that former Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem will take the helm from Governor Stephen Poloz in June. We doubt the change will materially affect the way the Bank... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank can’t risk insurance cut with housing revival We expect the Bank of Canada to leave its key policy rate unchanged next week, as fears of stoking the flames of the resurgent housing market outweigh the risk that economic growth will slow by more... 29th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New home sales rebound The recent rebound in new home sales in Toronto is an encouraging sign that the local housing market is not about to emulate the sharp falls in prices in Vancouver. 4,794 new homes were sold in... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank will have mixed feelings about stronger loonie Given that an average of the Bank’s three core inflation measures reached a seven-year high in May, policymakers may welcome the disinflationary effect that the appreciation of the loonie this week... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exporters left Kawhi-ing in face of global weakness Any boost to spending from the Raptors’ NBA finals victory won’t make up for weakness elsewhere, with Export Development Canada reporting this week that its semi-annual Trade Confidence Index has... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade tensions to weigh on growth April’s trade data painted a positive picture of the manufacturing sector, but the further fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the outlook for exporters is bleak. Conditions could... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter pick-up in GDP growth won’t last While the Bank of Canada presented a fairly balanced policy statement alongside its decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.75% this week, in the speech that followed a day later Senior Deputy... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly More reasons for the Bank to remain cautious The slump in the US activity surveys in May and the big drop in oil prices this week add to the reasons to expect the Bank of Canada to maintain a cautious tone at its meeting next week. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing shows signs of life The housing market showed some promising signs of life in April, with home sales rising strongly. House price inflation slowed, however, and is likely to remain very low. 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Data point to stronger GDP growth in Q2 The data this week confirmed that the economy is on track for a stronger second quarter than the Bank of Canada is expecting. While exports performed well in March, growing trade tensions with China... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy stronger in March, but housing still an issue Following February’s only modest decline in GDP, the economy is on track to do better than the Bank of Canada expected in the first half of the year. But the most recent housing data and this week’s... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Poloz in no rush to re-consider rate hikes There was never any doubt that the Bank of Canada would keep policy unchanged when it met earlier this week, although its decision to drop any reference to future interest rate hikes from its policy... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Mixed signals for the Bank A slew of data releases this week presented mixed signals for the Bank of Canada ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Although core inflation has picked up and the economy probably performed a bit... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rebound to have only muted benefit The recent rebound in oil prices would normally be great news for the Canadian economy. But with regulatory concerns and capacity constraints likely to hold back investment in the energy sector and... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A further dovish shift from the Bank? During a speech this week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz refused to commit to the possibility of further rate hikes and suggested that the neutral range was not a good target for investors to... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong January likely followed by weak February The consensus-beating jump in monthly GDP in January means that first-quarter growth will not be as weak as we previously expected. Growth will still be well below potential, though, and our forecast... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
