Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugged off lockdowns in January The housing market has largely shrugged off the latest phase of the coronavirus restrictions. If anything, the data imply there are upside risks to our already above-consensus forecasts for house... 12th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy should avoid first-quarter contraction The unexpected rise in hours worked in January, and the jump in oil exports to the US, support our view that GDP should continue to expand this quarter, albeit at a much slower pace. 5th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reliance on the kindness of strangers raises problems The government found itself battling on two fronts this week, as the EU moved to restrict vaccine exports and US President Joe Biden sought to strengthen ‘Buy American’ provisions at the expense of... 29th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Keystone XL cancellation highlights climate challenges The executive order signed by US President Joe Biden this week, to revoke the permit allowing the Keystone XL pipeline to cross the US border, means the project is as good as dead. This does not alter... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccine availability to remain limited in first quarter The government confirmed this week that vaccine availability will remain limited in the first quarter, so there is little chance of the economic recovery beginning any sooner than we currently... 15th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly A slow start in the race to vaccinate Ontario and Quebec extended their coronavirus restrictions this week and, given that infections are still rising and logistical problems are holding up the vaccination process, it seems likely that... 8th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly More COVID restrictions coming The provincial government in Quebec this week announced an 18-day “circuit breaker” lockdown, and the authorities in Ontario seem to be planning something similar. We assumed further measures were... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie flies despite Bank’s pledge to keep yields low The Canadian dollar jumped to a two-year high this week and, despite the pledge from the Bank of Canada that it will keep rates low across the yield curve, we think there is still scope for further... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada stands out with new approach to fiscal policy Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland hinted this week that the government will continue to provide fiscal stimulus until the economy reaches full employment. This is a far cry from concerns elsewhere... 4th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Freeland to lay out investment plans There is now more pressure on Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to use the fall fiscal update next week to announce short-term measures to support the economy, but we still expect her to outline how... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market shrugs off worsening outbreaks Home sales remained high in October while house price inflation accelerated. While renewed lockdowns could soon dent home sales, we doubt they would lower prices. 20th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Light at the end of a darkening tunnel The increased likelihood that an effective vaccine will be rolled out next year could eventually lead to a situation in which Canada’s economy outperforms, but the swift U-turn this week on the easing... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Ontario eases restrictions and provides more stimulus The easing of restrictions in Ontario and the stimulus announced in the province’s delayed 2020 budget bode well for activity, but the recovery could yet be upended by the further spread of the... 6th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Onus remains on fiscal policy Developments this week suggest it will take a much greater deterioration of the outlook for the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary support, leaving the onus on Finance Minister Chrystia... 30th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Focus turns to the Bank There was plenty of data this week for the Bank of Canada to digest ahead of its meeting, yet none of this will have much bearing on the key question of how the second wave of COVID-19 will play out. 23rd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Initial recovery was robust, but may now be slowing This week brought more news that the Canadian economy rebounded strongly as the lockdowns were eased over the summer. But the slowdown in employment growth in August is an early warning that the pace... 4th September 2020 · 4 mins read
