Canada Economics Drop in yields unlikely to do much for housing As the recent decline in bond yields have been most pronounced at the long end of the curve, it is unlikely to trigger much of a renewed fall in five-year mortgages rates. We expect mortgage rates to... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Home sales fall further in June The local real estate board data suggest that home sales fell further in June but, with new listings declining as well, house prices look set to keep rising. 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP to surpass pre-pandemic level in July The upward revision in March and smaller-than-expected fall in April mean that GDP is now on track to surpass its pre-pandemic level in July, a couple of months earlier than we previously thought... 2nd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Oil price rally more important than slump in lumber The dramatic fall in lumber prices over the past month has captured a lot of attention, but it is the more gradual rally in oil prices that is likely to have the greatest bearing on the economic... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights could keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new weights for the June CPI means that some of the item-specific price increases that we expect will not push up headline inflation by as much as we thought. Nevertheless, there... 18th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank unconcerned about inflation outlook The communications from the Bank of Canada this week confirmed that it is not worried about inflation surpassing its forecasts for this year, and that it remains committed to keeping the policy rate... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Elevated residential investment may concern the Bank The latest data suggest residential investment, which rose to more than 10% of GDP in the first quarter, has already peaked. With the Bank of Canada meeting next week, the key issue for policymakers... 4th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Hot economy summer The re-opening plans set out in the last couple of weeks point to strong gains in GDP over the summer. Given supply constraints, we expect the increase in activity to result in higher inflation than... 28th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank monitoring housing for signs of “exuberance” The latest Financial System Review suggests that the Bank of Canada’s concerns about high house price inflation are a key risk to our view that it will wait until early 2023 before raising interest... 21st May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Vaccinations now outpacing most countries After being constrained for months by a lack of supply, vaccinations in Canada are now outpacing those in every other G20 nation. Nevertheless, the cautious approach by policymakers suggest that... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Home sales decline for first time this year Home sales appear to have declined in April and further falls could act as a headwind to the recovery over the rest of the year. 7th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem unfazed by upside risks to inflation Governor Tiff Macklem said this week that the Bank of Canada remains committed to keeping interest rates low so long as the labour market remains weak, even if the upside risks to inflation... 30th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank raises forecasts as government boosts support Reflecting the additional fiscal support confirmed in the 2021 Budget this week, the Bank of Canada has raised its GDP growth forecasts to be closer to our own. Nevertheless, we do not expect the Bank... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly All eyes on Budget 2021 and the Bank of Canada We expect the government to unveil further stimulus measures worth a little more than 4% of GDP next week, and anticipate a slightly more dovish message from the Bank of Canada than markets are... 16th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly OSFI waters down the punch The proposal by the financial regulator OSFI, to raise the qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages, is unlikely to weigh on house prices. But by reducing the share of highly-leveraged borrowers, it... 9th April 2021 · 5 mins read