Canada Economics Update What could go wrong in 2023? As several forecasters now seem to share our view that the economy will suffer a moderate recession next year, in this Update we discuss the risks that could result in a much deeper downturn. 14th December 2022 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update The end of the tightening cycle? The Bank of Canada delivered a somewhat dovish 50bp rate hike today, by softening its explicit forward guidance that interest rates will need to rise further. Our GDP and inflation forecasts suggest... 7th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update What will the Bank make of the October CPI data? Although the annual rates of core inflation increased in October, we suspect the Bank of Canada will point to the declines in the 3-month annualised rates of CPI-trim and CPI-median to justify... 22nd November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Nov.) The plunge in new home sales in Toronto in September points to further falls in housing starts, although there are at least some signs that the worst may be behind us for home sales and that the... 16th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Fiscal restraint keeps markets on side The $6bn in new federal spending measures for this year, as outlined in the Fall Economic Update, amount to just 0.2% of GDP and will have little impact on the economic outlook or monetary policy. By... 3rd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Beginning of the end for Bank’s tightening cycle Governor Tiff Macklem shifted his tone notably today, reassuring that the Bank was “trying to balance the risks of over- and under-tightening”, whereas previously the emphasis had stressed that it was... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The surge in housing starts to a 10-month high in September casts doubt on our view that there is much worse still to come for residential investment, especially as the recent stabilisation of the... 18th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update From inflation crisis to financial crisis? Problems at California-based lender Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have refocussed attention on financial sector risks. In light of this, we are resending a report from last October that provides a... 11th October 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing activity weakening but not collapsing The latest data suggest that the broader housing sector is coping relatively well with higher interest rates. While housing starts and renovations spending are starting to decline from elevated levels... 21st September 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the government to blame for labour shortages? The public sector has been responsible for almost 90% of the rise in total employment since the pandemic and now accounts for the largest sustained share of employment since the early 1990s. The... 13th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives little away as it hikes by 75bp The Bank of Canada remains concerned about the risk of high inflation expectations becoming entrenched but, with the economy now slowing sharply and inflation set to ease by more than the Bank... 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Better news on core inflation ahead We expect some of the recent surge in travel services prices to be reversed after the summer which, together with signs that global goods shortages are easing, suggests that core inflation is close to... 30th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug.) Home sales fell further below the pre-pandemic norm in July and pre-construction sales seem to have fallen through the floor, but there is no evidence yet that this is weighing on construction. 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics We doubt the Canadian dollar’s resilience will last much longer The Canadian dollar has held up relatively well against the US dollar so far in 2022, but we think the factors underpinning the loonie’s resilience will fade and push it lower against the greenback... 11th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will Canadians retire themselves into a recession? The sharp increase in retirements this year presents downside risks to our forecasts for employment and, with GDP growth already faltering, further raises the probability that economic activity will... 9th August 2022 · 2 mins read
