Canada Economics Update Labour market conditions easing Although the unemployment rate remains near a record low, the decline in vacancies suggests that labour market conditions have nevertheless eased, supporting our view that wage growth is close to a... 3rd May 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr.) House prices edged up in March and the jump in the sales-to-new listing ratio implies they will rise further this quarter. With affordability still very stretched, we assume that there will be a... 19th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada delivers mixed messages The Bank of Canada delivered a mixed message today, noting that it is more confident inflation will decline in the next few months, but less confident that inflation will fall all the way to 2.0% as... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Government drops its fiscal anchor The 2023 Budget projects a much larger deficit than the prior Fall Economic Statement and, as a result, the government now agrees with our forecast that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise. Roughly half... 28th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar.) House prices fell at a slower pace in February and the sharp improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that they will soon stabilise. While the turmoil in the global banking... 15th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing would be main casualty of SVB contagion The Canadian banking sector is heavily concentrated, reducing the risk that deposit runs at small lenders might trigger a broader crisis of confidence for the entire sector. As things stand, the... 14th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Policy unchanged, but Bank prepared to resume hikes The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today as expected but, with one eye on the strength of the recent US data and the Fed’s hawkish reaction to that, it sounded less confident... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb.) The unseasonably warm start to 2023 provided little support to the housing market or construction, with sales and prices falling further in January while housing starts slumped to a 28-month low. As... 15th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the strength of employment The surge in employment in January highlights that some sectors are still recovering strongly and raises the prospect that the economy could avoid recession, although we still judge that a modest one... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Services inflation already slowing Overall services price growth has already slowed but, for the Bank of Canada to loosen policy, we will need to see far more convincing signs of lower inflation in the most labour-intensive service... 9th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hints that smaller 25 bp hike likely to be the last The Bank of Canada accompanied its smaller 25 bp hike with new guidance that it intends to hold the policy rate at the current 4.5% while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The large fall in new listings in December failed to prevent another sizeable drop in house prices, but the improvement in the sales-to-new listing ratio offers some hope that the downward pressure on... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Employment strength masks worrying signs elsewhere The activity and labour market data imply the economy carried more momentum into 2023 than we expected, but the weakness of temporary employment suggests cracks are showing beneath the surface. 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Shelter inflation set to fall sharply this year Strong rental growth and higher mortgage costs will keep shelter inflation elevated for the next few months, but we expect it to fall sharply over the rest of 2023 as lower house prices feed through... 5th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Dec.) New listings fell in November but, because they are taking longer to sell, the inventory of homes for sale continued to rise. That is one reason to expect house prices to fall further, particularly if... 15th December 2022 · 4 mins read
