Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Jan.) The decline in mortgage rates appears to be supporting demand, with home sales rebounding last month. While prices continued to fall in December, the sales-to-new listing ratio is now pointing to... 16th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Surveys show inflation expectations are still too high The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys continue to flash warning signs about the outlook for the economy and labour market. The normalisation of inflation expectations remains... 15th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Don’t fear AI; Canada could benefit more than most A version of this article appeared in the Globe and Mail on 3rd January 2024. 3rd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the surge in CPI rent inflation It is no secret that strong immigration is pushing up rents but, as rent growth for new tenancies was little changed last year, this does not fully explain the surge in CPI rent inflation. The CPI... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Dec.) November was a weak month all round for housing, with prices falling at a faster pace and starts plunging. Lenders are already cutting mortgage rates in response to the recent drop in bond yields... 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank to acknowledge reality in the new year The Bank of Canada is clinging on to the idea that restrictive policy is still needed to get inflation back to 2%. Nonetheless, with core inflation pressures muted, GDP and house prices falling, and... 6th December 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Key risks for 2024 In this Global Economics Update, we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary... 30th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland avoids pouring more fuel on the inflation fire Faced with much higher interest costs, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland outlined very little in the way of new spending measures in the Fall Economic Statement today. Most of the focus was on non... 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch. (Nov.) The fall in new listings in October may ease some concerns about forced home sales but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio declining again, it is still likely that the pace of house price declines... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Risk of forced home sales is rising There are increasing signs that the most leveraged borrowers are struggling to refinance their mortgages with traditional lenders. The small but meaningful number of insured mortgage holders who took... 6th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What if all the temporary residents leave? The government today confirmed that it intends to welcome an increasing number of permanent residents in the next couple of years. Even if the number of permanent residents continues to rise, however... 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s next move likely to be a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its tightening bias today, the rest of its communications suggest that the Bank is growing more confident it has done enough to eventually get inflation back to... 25th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Output rapidly falling below potential The weakness of GDP growth in the second and third quarters means that the Bank of Canada is likely to make a marked re-assessment of its output gap estimates in its October Monetary Policy Report... 18th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Oct.) The renewed increases in mortgage rates and new listings mean we now expect house prices to fall by 5% over the next six months. The big risk, however, is that we are underestimating the degree to... 17th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank’s surveys unlikely to prompt another hike The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys show that businesses’ inflation expectations continue to decline, albeit slowly, and point to a growing risk that the economy will fall into recession... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s behind resurgent core inflation pressures? The recent strength of core inflation compared to that in the US is mainly due to a rebound in durable goods prices. That has little to do with demand, which has weakened to a greater extent in Canada... 11th October 2023 · 5 mins read
