Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Can the BoC risk diverging from the Fed? Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates earlier and more aggressively than the Federal Reserve means that the loonie is likely to depreciate, but we doubt the move will be large... 2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Freeland spends what she can in Budget 2024 Although Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland stuck to her previous pledge to keep the budget deficit below $40bn in the new fiscal year, she nonetheless spent the small windfall afforded to the... 16th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Apr. 2024) The government’s policies to boost affordability for first-time buyers will have only a modest impact on demand, but they still add to our sense that house prices will rise in the coming years. While... 16th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank leaves the door open for a June rate cut Governor Tiff Macklem sounded relatively dovish in the Bank of Canada’s press conference today, leaving the door open to an interest rate cut at the next meeting in June. 10th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Mixed results from the Bank’s latest surveys The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys remain consistent with weak GDP growth and generally show that inflation expectations are normalising, but the latter are still too high... 1st April 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Loonie to weaken further over the course of the year We still expect the Canadian dollar to depreciate against the US dollar as interest rate differentials relative to the US widen and Canada’s terms of trade worsen. 27th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Population growth to plunge The government’s plan to cut temporary resident numbers over 2025 to 2027 will result in the weakest three years for population growth in Canada’s 157-year history. While it might not be enough to... 25th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Mar.) House prices stabilised in February and, despite emerging signs of financial stress among households, we believe that the risk of renewed price declines is limited. Nonetheless, with affordability so... 18th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Trump 2.0 poses new headwinds for Canada The key risk for Canada’s economy from the US presidential election is that a Trump administration could pull out of the USMCA, leaving Canada subject to any US import tariffs. To avoid that, Canada... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank gives little away The Bank of Canada gave little away about the potential timing of interest rate cuts today, although its communications suggest that it is gaining a bit more confidence that inflation is moving in the... 6th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Unemployment rate to rise again before long A fall in the participation rate has kept a lid on unemployment in recent months but, given rapid population growth, we continue to expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.5% later this year. 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Nearing the trough in house prices Although house prices continued to fall in January, lower mortgage rates are beginning to support affordability and stimulate home sales. With the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to positive... 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Regional data lift lid on Canada’s climate credentials To mark the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank, this Update takes a closer look at the sub-national climate-related data in the country. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 5th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Rate cuts are coming into view The Bank of Canada’s decision to drop its tightening bias today is the first step toward interest rate cuts, particularly as the Bank also hinted that it may be willing to look through elevated... 24th January 2024 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Student visa cap makes the Bank’s job easier The new cap on international student visas is another reason to expect population growth to slow sharply. That will give the Bank of Canada confidence that CPI rent inflation will ease later this year... 23rd January 2024 · 4 mins read
