Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (Q4) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while businesses expect sales growth to slow this year, investment and employment should continue to expand. As such, we remain cautiously... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global slowdown not the only storm brewing for 2012 As we head into 2012, there still appears to be a sense of misplaced confidence regarding Canada's economic fundamentals and growth prospects. With the US economy set to slow again and the euro zone... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rate cuts still likely next year The Bank of Canada's intention to hold its policy rate at 1% for the time being does not rule out interest rate cuts early next year. External headwinds are likely to blow even harder next year and... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q3) and payroll employment (Sep.) Further growth in non-financial business profits is one good reason to expect continued growth in business investment and perhaps payroll employment. That said, the uncertainty surrounding what impact... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Why we differ from the consensus outlook We have below-consensus forecasts for Canadian interest rates and economic growth next year. The main reasons for the difference relates to our bearish views on rest-of-world economic growth... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut policy rate next year The Bank of Canada now believes there is no need to remove any monetary policy stimulus anytime soon. Even this more dovish position, however, rests on the assumption that the global economy will... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil The latest quarterly business survey responses indicate that the more uncertain global economic outlook is dampening business confidence, but only at the margin. While cautiously optimistic regarding... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further signs of over-building September’s annualised housing starts of 205,900, combined with upward revisions to July and August, indicates that third quarter housing investment grew more strongly than we had expected. However... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update The disappearing case for rate increases Considering the contraction in second-quarter GDP and evidence of slowing global economic growth and rising financial risks, it is not a surprise to anyone that the Bank of Canada kept its policy... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update New stimulus pledge won’t prevent growth slowdown Canada’s Federal Government has declared that it would be prepared to introduce new stimulus measures, but that it would need to see clear signs of the economy contracting before offering more fiscal... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Financial market turbulence puts economic growth at risk The possible adverse effects from sharply falling equity prices and lower commodity prices on wealth and confidence have increased the risks that Canada's economic recovery might falter during the... 9th August 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada poised to raise rates? By dropping the qualification in its policy statement this morning that monetary stimulus will only be withdrawn "eventually", the Bank of Canada seems to be posturing to raise rates. Obviously there... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing in Canada Speaking in Vancouver today, the Governor of the Bank of Canada Mark Carney admitted that housing valuations are elevated and hinted that if there were a sudden weakening in the housing sector, then... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal Budget 2011 The new Conservative majority government now aims to tackle its updated C$36.2bn deficit essentially over four years, which we think will prove far too optimistic. A global economic slowdown, a drop... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning highlighted that ultimately it will raise rates at some point, this year or next year, but even then it said the extent of any policy... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal election results supportive to economy The Federal election results should be supportive for equity markets, the Canadian dollar and business investment. A pro-business majority Conservative government may also look to forge new bilateral... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
