Canada Economics Update Is the housing market enjoying a soft landing? Housing activity is cooling and if this trend continues, as we expect, the typical lag times between activity and prices suggest that house prices might begin to decline outright next year. Given the... 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada's new economic forecasts, presented in its July Monetary Policy Report, still look too optimistic, mainly because of its rosy domestic assumptions. Although the bank's lower near... 19th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada unwilling to throw in towel Today's Bank of Canada policy statement showed that it is unwilling to throw in the towel on its previous statements that interest rates may need to rise, from the current 1%. Even so, the Bank's... 17th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Booming housing construction still on uneven footing The recent strength in housing starts, mostly multiples, reflects strong new housing sales from over a year ago. However, home sales are now softening and the recent tightening of mortgage insurance... 11th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (2012Q2) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while significantly fewer businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up over the next 12 months, they remain steadfast in their plans to... 10th July 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to fall further The recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar is likely to continue this year and next. Our reasons for thinking so are the prospects of further declines in commodity prices and lower expectations... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Tighter mortgage rules likely to curb housing activity The finance department's surprise announcement earlier today to tighten the screw further on mortgage insurance rules starting in early July is prudent action in our view, given the elevated risks... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada back in dovish mode The Bank of Canada's policy statement, while keeping its policy rate at 1.00%, backed off from the suggestion in the previous statement that interest rates may need to rise. The Bank is now more... 5th June 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada signals possible rate increases The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.0% for now, signalled that some small increases might soon be needed. This hawkish change from last month’s fairly... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget austerity will constrain economic growth Despite an already modest deficit, the new federal budget includes plans to forge ahead with austerity measures that are likely to restrain economic growth. We doubt that the economy will perform as... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains cautious approach The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.00%, retained its cautious wait-and-see approach, despite the improvement in economic data. Given the strength of the... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q4) and payroll employment (Dec.) The 9.0% q/q increase in fourth-quarter corporate operating profits, following two consecutive quarterly declines, is encouraging with respect to growth prospects for business investment and payroll... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing juggernaut on uneven footing The latest building permits and housing starts data indicate that new housing construction is not slowing down much. Although this is good for economic activity this quarter, we are still concerned... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar rally unlikely to persist The Canadian dollar has attracted plenty of attention again as it moved back to parity with the US dollar, reflecting increased optimism about prospects for the global economy. We suspect, however... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still likely to cut rates In its policy statement today the Bank of Canada maintained both its key policy interest at 1% and its wait-and-see policy approach. Although the Bank judges that weaker external factors are offset by... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
