Canada Economics Update Payroll employment (Mar.) and Balance of Payments (Q1) March's business payroll figures showed an encouraging 0.8% m/m gain in average weekly earnings and a respectable 48,950 gain in employment. Even so, given the previous declines in payroll employment... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada signals possible rate increases The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.0% for now, signalled that some small increases might soon be needed. This hawkish change from last month’s fairly... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Budget austerity will constrain economic growth Despite an already modest deficit, the new federal budget includes plans to forge ahead with austerity measures that are likely to restrain economic growth. We doubt that the economy will perform as... 30th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains cautious approach The Bank of Canada's policy statement, which pledged to keep interest rates at 1.00%, retained its cautious wait-and-see approach, despite the improvement in economic data. Given the strength of the... 8th March 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q4) and payroll employment (Dec.) The 9.0% q/q increase in fourth-quarter corporate operating profits, following two consecutive quarterly declines, is encouraging with respect to growth prospects for business investment and payroll... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing juggernaut on uneven footing The latest building permits and housing starts data indicate that new housing construction is not slowing down much. Although this is good for economic activity this quarter, we are still concerned... 8th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar rally unlikely to persist The Canadian dollar has attracted plenty of attention again as it moved back to parity with the US dollar, reflecting increased optimism about prospects for the global economy. We suspect, however... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still likely to cut rates In its policy statement today the Bank of Canada maintained both its key policy interest at 1% and its wait-and-see policy approach. Although the Bank judges that weaker external factors are offset by... 17th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook & Senior Loan Officer Surveys (Q4) The latest quarterly business surveys indicate that, while businesses expect sales growth to slow this year, investment and employment should continue to expand. As such, we remain cautiously... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global slowdown not the only storm brewing for 2012 As we head into 2012, there still appears to be a sense of misplaced confidence regarding Canada's economic fundamentals and growth prospects. With the US economy set to slow again and the euro zone... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rate cuts still likely next year The Bank of Canada's intention to hold its policy rate at 1% for the time being does not rule out interest rate cuts early next year. External headwinds are likely to blow even harder next year and... 6th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits (Q3) and payroll employment (Sep.) Further growth in non-financial business profits is one good reason to expect continued growth in business investment and perhaps payroll employment. That said, the uncertainty surrounding what impact... 24th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Why we differ from the consensus outlook We have below-consensus forecasts for Canadian interest rates and economic growth next year. The main reasons for the difference relates to our bearish views on rest-of-world economic growth... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut policy rate next year The Bank of Canada now believes there is no need to remove any monetary policy stimulus anytime soon. Even this more dovish position, however, rests on the assumption that the global economy will... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence resilient to financial market turmoil The latest quarterly business survey responses indicate that the more uncertain global economic outlook is dampening business confidence, but only at the margin. While cautiously optimistic regarding... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further signs of over-building September’s annualised housing starts of 205,900, combined with upward revisions to July and August, indicates that third quarter housing investment grew more strongly than we had expected. However... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read