Canada Economics Update Businesses investing cautiously amidst uncertainty The fourth-quarter Business Outlook Survey indicates that, while more businesses expect future sales growth to pick-up as they plan to increase investment in machinery and equipment, their modest... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Hopes abound for an unlikely housing soft landing The sharp slowdown in existing home sales is grim news for the new housing industry, which continues to build above population requirements. We expect these growing demand and supply imbalances to... 9th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderating housing trends mimic US slowdown The continued decline in existing home sales support our view that a potentially severe housing correction is underway. Assuming that sales continue to trend lower heading into next year, then sharper... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing investment decline likely to worsen The declining trend in housing starts supports our view that a housing correction is underway. The slump in new and existing home sales suggest that this slowdown will worsen next year, hitting the... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence suggest below potential Q4 GDP Although the monthly small business optimism index fell back in November, the quarterly average of our seasonally adjusted measure still points to fourth-quarter GDP growth of just below 2.0%... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish The Bank of Canada is still clinging to the possibility that its policy rate might need to rise from the current 1% because it is too early to tell whether the housing slowdown will be sustained. It... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Third quarter wage growth looks robust Despite the modest drop back in September's non-farm payroll employment and average weekly earnings, third-quarter annualised growth in wages and salaries is likely to have accelerated to perhaps 8.0%... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Carney's departure bad timing for Canada Mark Carney's surprise decision to accept the head job at the Bank of England, after explicitly telling everyone he was not interested, adds to an already uncertain outlook for Canada. Moreover, it... 27th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing stagnation comes before the fall The recent decline in the sales-to-listings ratio points to home price stagnation ahead, a prospect that has already begun to scare away some condo investors. In Vancouver and Toronto, existing condo... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Economic growth likely to remain sluggish Canada's economy is entering a slow growth zone. With external headwinds continuing to challenge exports and business confidence, stagnation in the domestic housing market is further casting doubt... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Upbeat small businesses don't alter broad picture The latest increase in CFIB's small business optimism index to a six-month high of 65.6 in October, from 62.0 in September, doesn't alter the big picture that the economy may have slowed further at... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further consensus growth downgrades likely lie ahead The downgraded consensus of private-sector GDP forecasts surveyed by the federal government for its upcoming fiscal update still looks overly optimistic. Further negative growth surprises to the... 30th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Strong payrolls survey encouraging for third-quarter GDP The recent strength in non-farm payroll data, which have showed solid gains in both employment and average weekly earnings, indicates that an improvement in third-quarter wages and salaries growth... 25th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still overly optimistic on outlook The Bank's October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents an overly optimistic outlook for Canada's economy. While weak foreign demand restrains Canada's exports, flagging domestic business confidence... 24th October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada hawkish bias targets households The Bank of Canada is still saying that its policy rate will need to rise from the current 1%, but there appears to have been a shift in its reasoning for maintaining the tightening bias. Given the... 23rd October 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (2012Q3) Businesses are clearly more cautious about the outlook for sales and we think they are still too optimistic, especially now that the domestic economy looks vulnerable to a housing correction... 16th October 2012 · 1 min read
