Canada Economics Update Provincial growth to weaken further in 2013 The release of the provincial GDP figures for 2012 provides us with more evidence that the resource-rich western provinces were behind the bulk of the slowdown in overall economic growth last year... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in consumption growth is here to stay Although consumption growth was respectable in the second half of last year, the further deceleration in income growth, along with the reported weakness of retail spending, suggests that it has slowed... 25th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada sticks with rate tightening bias The Bank of Canada's decision to stick with its rate tightening bias, despite growing economic slack and below-target inflation, rests uncomfortably on its faith that economic growth will accelerate... 17th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing demand likely to soften further The year-on-year drop in existing home sales supports our view that a potentially hard housing market correction is underway. Assuming that home sales continue to trend lower this year, then this will... 15th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing downturn dashing hopes of economic rebound The downward trend in existing home sales, building permits and housing starts suggests that shrinking residential investment will be a drag on GDP growth over the first half of this year. Accordingly... 9th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions indicate sluggish growth ahead The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that, while slightly more businesses expect future sales to pick-up over the next 12 months, investment intentions have been scaled back and hiring... 8th April 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing downturn gathering force The downward trend in both existing home sales and housing starts indicates that the housing slowdown is unfortunately becoming more broad-based. As demand and supply imbalances intensify this year... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Lower inflation may further delay return to fiscal balance Concerns about when governments will meet their budget deficit elimination goals have mostly centred on rosy consensus real GDP growth forecasts. But lower inflation could also result in even longer... 13th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada continues to back off rate hikes With inflation now below target and the economy operating well below its potential, it was no surprise to see the Bank of Canada back even further away from raising interest rates. We still think that... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Falling house prices setting a precedent for further declines National home prices have been in decline for five consecutive months and we anticipate further declines this year, as potential buyers are scared off by the prospect of capital losses. We standby our... 20th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Brighter forestry prospects no harbinger for Canada The turnaround in the US housing market, which has pushed lumber prices up to multi-year highs, is benefiting Canada's forestry exporters. However, the pick-up in demand for lumber south of the border... 19th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update As housing goes, so goes the economy The latest batch of economic data, particularly the slump in construction activity, supports our view that Canada's economy will expand by only 1.0% in 2013, well below the expectations of most other... 11th February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence index points to better start to 2013 The recent improvement in small and medium sized business confidence points to a pick-up in economic growth in the first quarter, to around 2% annualised, roughly twice the pace of last quarter. We... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slower consumption growth to linger Slower growth in wages and salaries and lower consumer confidence suggest that real consumption growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter, to only half the 3.8% annualised gain in the third. We... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal deficit elimination goal may face longer delays An underperforming economy will make it tougher for the federal government to eliminate its budget deficit worth just over 1% of GDP. Although some headway has been made this year, weak underlying... 29th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada backing down on tightening bias In a surprise climb down, the Bank of Canada admitted that the need to withdraw policy stimulus is less imminent, partly reflecting the weaker global economic outlook, but mainly because the housing... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
