Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely Governor Stephen Poloz's speech today indicated that that the Bank of Canada is doubling-down on its earlier bet that the economy is poised for a comeback, led by a rebound in exports and then... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q2, as drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production. However, there were encouraging signs of improvement in other areas of the economy, which bodes well for... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Credit Monitor (Jul.) Restrictive mortgage rules and rising fixed mortgage rates suggest that the slowdown in household credit growth is likely to persist. Meanwhile, trends in business sector credit growth suggest that... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's support to second-half GDP unlikely to last Housing investment might continue to support GDP growth over the second half of this year, but there are still tentative signs that a day of reckoning lies around the corner, with housing likely to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish Although the Bank of Canada retained its tightening bias word for word, it now admits that the continuing weakness in exports and investment mean hopes of a smooth 'rotation in demand' look less... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Higher commodity prices boosts business confidence Another rise in the CFIB's small business confidence in August suggests that firms continue to expect GDP growth to pick up in the third quarter, from our estimated 1.5% annualised in the second.... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home sales likely to drop back before year end The recent uptick in existing homes sales most likely reflects a rush by home buyers to complete deals before mortgage rates rise further. However, this has only pulled forward sales that would have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low wage cost pressures point to muted inflation The latest slowdown in hourly earnings provides further evidence that underlying inflation is likely to remain close to the lower bound of the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3%. This supports... 13th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Global potash price slump won't harm Canada's economy The anticipated slump in potash prices should have only a minor impact on Canada's economy. Potash mining represents a tiny share of Canada's GDP and exports. Moreover, the relatively lower cost of... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business confidence hints at steady Q3 GDP growth The uptick in the CFIB's small and medium-sized business confidence in July suggests that third-quarter GDP might rise by as much as 2.0% annualised. The details behind this optimism, however, appear... 25th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada softens tightening bias Although the Bank of Canada held its view that the economy will soon accelerate and that interest rates will eventually rise, several dovish tweaks to its policy statement suggest even more strongly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home building unlikely to defy gravity for long The recent condo-surge which propelled housing starts to levels above demographic requirements in the second quarter is not convincing evidence that the housing slowdown is over. More timely... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions soften further The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that businesses do not expect any material improvement in future sales growth and, as a result, are scaling back their investment plans. Accordingly... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Softer business survey suggests slowdown in GDP growth The further decline in the CFIB's measure of small and medium-sized business confidence in June provides us with more evidence that, after the decent 2.5% annualised gain in the first quarter, second... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar's descent likely to continue The Canadian dollar is likely to trend lower against the US dollar this year and next. While further declines in commodity prices are likely to play a minor role, we anticipate narrowing interest rate... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read