Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits and investment likely to slow The slowdown in third-quarter business profit growth and the more recent pullback in commodity prices suggest that investment growth will remain lacklustre. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada's hopes of... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government turning more cautious on economy After enjoying a stronger than expected 2012-13 fiscal year, the Federal government is taking a cautious approach and sticking with its previous timetable to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015. With... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada throws in towel The Bank of Canada's decision to downgrade its economic outlook and drop its vague tightening bias supports our view that if there is any change in monetary policy over the near-term, it would be to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses losing confidence in economic outlook The latest Business Outlook Survey dealt another blow to the Bank of Canada's upbeat growth outlook. With businesses turning more cautious on the outlook for sales and capital investment, even our... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US government shutdown shouldn't hurt Canada The US government shutdown should not have a material negative impact on Canada's economy. But if this political deadlock is any indication of how US policymakers will handle the much more important... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business survey suggests steady Q3 GDP growth In spite of the modest drop back in September, the CFIB's small business confidence suggests that annualised GDP growth in the third quarter is likely to match second-quarter’s 1.7% gain. This... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Expectations for second-half GDP growth too optimistic At slightly more than 2.0%, the latest consensus forecast for third-quarter annualised GDP growth looks too strong to us. Partly because of large negative carry-over effects from the second quarter... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely Governor Stephen Poloz's speech today indicated that that the Bank of Canada is doubling-down on its earlier bet that the economy is poised for a comeback, led by a rebound in exports and then... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada's economic rebound unlikely New Zealand’s economy slowed in Q2, as drought hit agricultural and manufacturing production. However, there were encouraging signs of improvement in other areas of the economy, which bodes well for... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Credit Monitor (Jul.) Restrictive mortgage rules and rising fixed mortgage rates suggest that the slowdown in household credit growth is likely to persist. Meanwhile, trends in business sector credit growth suggest that... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing's support to second-half GDP unlikely to last Housing investment might continue to support GDP growth over the second half of this year, but there are still tentative signs that a day of reckoning lies around the corner, with housing likely to... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish Although the Bank of Canada retained its tightening bias word for word, it now admits that the continuing weakness in exports and investment mean hopes of a smooth 'rotation in demand' look less... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Higher commodity prices boosts business confidence Another rise in the CFIB's small business confidence in August suggests that firms continue to expect GDP growth to pick up in the third quarter, from our estimated 1.5% annualised in the second.... 29th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Favourable oil prices could spur business investment The rebound in domestic crude oil prices over the first half of this year has improved the outlook for Canadian business investment. Overall, this suggests some upside risk to GDP outlook of 1.5% in... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home sales likely to drop back before year end The recent uptick in existing homes sales most likely reflects a rush by home buyers to complete deals before mortgage rates rise further. However, this has only pulled forward sales that would have... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
