Canada Economics Update Federal government will need every bit of extra fiscal room It seems almost certain now that the Federal government will meet its timetable for eliminating the budget deficit before fiscal year 2015-16, which will give it the wiggle room it needed to deliver... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar still too high to energise economy The recent slide in the Canadian dollar doesn't greatly improve Canada's economic prospects. The sharp decline looks overdone in our mind and we wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound, at least a... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Stronger wages and salaries growth unlikely to last The recent non-farm payroll figures suggest that wages and salaries growth continued to accelerate in the fourth quarter, which should have helped support stronger consumption growth. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada slightly more dovish than before Although it stopped short of adopting an easing bias, the Bank of Canada's policy statement revealed that it is more concerned than before about persistently low inflation. With the long awaited... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Declining home sales to constrain economic growth The third consecutive monthly decline in existing home sales in December provides more evidence that the earlier surge seen last summer was mainly a pulling forward of home purchases in response to... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses still remain in cautious mood The Bank of Canada's latest business outlook survey shows some welcome improvement in investment and hiring intentions but, despite the Canadian dollar's recent decline and stronger sales expectations... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing will become a drag on economy next year While the recent condo-driven pick-up in housing starts will provide a boost to fourth-quarter residential investment, the slump in new home sales suggests it will be reversed next year, making... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada shuffling closer to a rate cut Although the Bank of Canada maintained its neutral stance as expected, its policy statement showed that it does have more concerns about the growth and inflation outlook, just not enough right now to... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality job creation to restrain income growth It is encouraging that, even allowing for the modest drop back in September, the payroll survey suggests employment growth picked up in the third quarter. Unfortunately, over the past year, payroll... 27th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business profits and investment likely to slow The slowdown in third-quarter business profit growth and the more recent pullback in commodity prices suggest that investment growth will remain lacklustre. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada's hopes of... 26th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government turning more cautious on economy After enjoying a stronger than expected 2012-13 fiscal year, the Federal government is taking a cautious approach and sticking with its previous timetable to eliminate the budget deficit by 2015. With... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada throws in towel The Bank of Canada's decision to downgrade its economic outlook and drop its vague tightening bias supports our view that if there is any change in monetary policy over the near-term, it would be to... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses losing confidence in economic outlook The latest Business Outlook Survey dealt another blow to the Bank of Canada's upbeat growth outlook. With businesses turning more cautious on the outlook for sales and capital investment, even our... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update US government shutdown shouldn't hurt Canada The US government shutdown should not have a material negative impact on Canada's economy. But if this political deadlock is any indication of how US policymakers will handle the much more important... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Small business survey suggests steady Q3 GDP growth In spite of the modest drop back in September, the CFIB's small business confidence suggests that annualised GDP growth in the third quarter is likely to match second-quarter’s 1.7% gain. This... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Expectations for second-half GDP growth too optimistic At slightly more than 2.0%, the latest consensus forecast for third-quarter annualised GDP growth looks too strong to us. Partly because of large negative carry-over effects from the second quarter... 25th September 2013 · 1 min read