Canada Economics Update Elevated pace of home building adding to risk of bust The recent strength in residential building permits relative to housing starts indicate that the pace of home building may accelerate over the near-term. But that only adds to our concern of a... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada's last policy statement for the year retained its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. While acknowledging that inflation has been firmer than it expected, the statement... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster household spending growth likely in Q4 Faster income growth and lower gasoline prices bode well for household spending prospects this holiday season. We expect somewhat faster consumption growth of 3.0%. 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Cheaper loonie will help to boost tourism trade The recent decline in the value of the Canadian dollar will provide a much-needed boost to domestic tourism. That support, aided by a steadily improving US economy, could add as much as 0.5 percentage... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government better positioned to provide stimulus Amidst challenging economic times, the Conservative-led government has fulfilled its pledge to eliminate the Federal budget deficit and is now focused on fortifying its majority government in next... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada ditches neutral forward guidance The Bank of Canada's decision to drop its neutral forward guidance reflects a change in its policy communications approach and not the interest rate outlook. With less explicit forward guidance to go... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence still short of the mark While the Bank of Canada's latest Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the outlook for sales growth, firms still aren't confident enough in that outlook to boost investment... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada isn't targeting lower dollar Governor Stephen Poloz's reminder today that the Bank of Canada has no desire to use monetary policy to target a weaker currency doesn't mean that the Canadian dollar won't continue to depreciate over... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rightly remains neutral on rates The Bank of Canada's neutral policy statement on the rate outlook showed that it isn't concerned about the recent uptick in inflation, since this is due to temporary factors rather than any... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderate business profits point to slower GDP growth The slowdown in the growth of business profits in the second quarter runs counter to the consensus view that stronger overall economic growth lies just around the corner. This supports our view that... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Employment data indicate slow growth economy Even after the upward revisions to July's data, the weak trend in employment suggests that some caution should be taken when making any bold inferences about the state of the economy, particularly... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The monetary policy statement shows that the Bank of Canada isn't concerned about higher inflation, since the recent rise is due to temporary factors, rather than improvements in economic fundamentals... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falls amid uncertain outlook While the Bank of Canada's summer Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the fundamental drivers of economic growth, businesses seem less sure about the economic outlook. In... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in inflation won't change interest rate outlook The recent pick-up in inflation, which mainly reflects volatility in energy and food prices, won't change the Bank of Canada's neutral view on rates. With exports and investment still underperforming... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in housing to hit new motor vehicle sales Our fear is that the impressive recovery in new motor vehicle sales since the recession ended, which was driven principally by a surge in light truck sales, will fade as the housing boom falters... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
