Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada rightly remains neutral on rates The Bank of Canada's neutral policy statement on the rate outlook showed that it isn't concerned about the recent uptick in inflation, since this is due to temporary factors rather than any... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderate business profits point to slower GDP growth The slowdown in the growth of business profits in the second quarter runs counter to the consensus view that stronger overall economic growth lies just around the corner. This supports our view that... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Employment data indicate slow growth economy Even after the upward revisions to July's data, the weak trend in employment suggests that some caution should be taken when making any bold inferences about the state of the economy, particularly... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The monetary policy statement shows that the Bank of Canada isn't concerned about higher inflation, since the recent rise is due to temporary factors, rather than improvements in economic fundamentals... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence falls amid uncertain outlook While the Bank of Canada's summer Business Outlook Survey results point to an improvement in the fundamental drivers of economic growth, businesses seem less sure about the economic outlook. In... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in inflation won't change interest rate outlook The recent pick-up in inflation, which mainly reflects volatility in energy and food prices, won't change the Bank of Canada's neutral view on rates. With exports and investment still underperforming... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Slowdown in housing to hit new motor vehicle sales Our fear is that the impressive recovery in new motor vehicle sales since the recession ended, which was driven principally by a surge in light truck sales, will fade as the housing boom falters... 5th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, although core inflation has turned out slightly firmer than expected, it is more concerned than... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Low quality jobs and rising prices constrain spending February's payroll figures suggest that nominal wages and salaries growth slowed in the first quarter and discouraging job quality trends suggest that wages might not improve much in this quarter... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, despite the lower Canadian dollar, core inflation will still take about two years to return to... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing downturn will drag on for much longer The recent slowdown in housing starts is just the beginning of a long-term correction that will dampen economic growth this year and next. If, as we expect, new home sales soften further, in response... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business confidence improves amidst uncertain outlook The modest improvement evident in the Bank of Canada's spring Business Outlook Survey is an encouraging sign, but doubts remain about the near-term outlook for exports and softening domestic demand... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Quebec might do better with its own currency Pauline Marois, leader of the separatist Parti Quebecois (PQ), has suggested that an independent Quebec could hold a seat on the governing council of the Bank of Canada and retain the Canadian dollar... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada maintains neutral bias Although the Bank of Canada left its policy rate unchanged at 1.0% today and maintained its neutral bias, we suspect that the emphasis on the recent rebound in inflation in the accompanying statement... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Investment intentions remain muted The 2014 annual investment intentions survey, which points to another very modest gain in business investment this year, will come as a blow to the Bank of Canada. The Bank is still hoping for a... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read