Canada Economics Update Household deleveraging likely to restrain growth The small income-driven decline in the household debt-to-income ratio in the fourth quarter of 2017 provides a glimmer of hope that the economy might be able to successfully grow its way out of debt... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada won't risk further rate hikes The Bank of Canada implied in its policy statement this morning that, despite growing concerns around trade, it still believes further interest rate increases will be needed later this year. That said... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal Budget (2018) Finance Minister Bill Morneau didn’t deliver any new major tax or spending measures in the 2018 Federal Budget, despite massive US corporate tax cuts and widespread fears of NAFTA’s potential demise... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update TPP deal overshadowed by NAFTA uncertainty The news that Canada has reached a deal on a new free trade agreement with the remaining ten TPP countries is no game changer since, even in the long term, the boost to Canadian GDP will be a trivial... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to hike interest rates further The Bank of Canada’s raised interest rates to 1.25% today, from 1.00%, and its more upbeat economic outlook suggests that it will hike rates again later this year, probably in April. In contrast to... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses shrugging off NAFTA uncertainty The improvement in business sentiment in the fourth quarter of last year, most notably the marked rebound in investment and hiring intentions, suggest that the increased uncertainty around NAFTA isn’t... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Key forecast calls for 2018 Although the economy probably grew by 3% in 2017, the gains were overly-dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That was possible when interest rates were near record lows and home values... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada interest rate hike cycle over The Bank of Canada’s decision to keep interest rates at 1.00% today and its cautious policy statement indicate that, in contrast to the market view, it is in no hurry to raise rates again soon. We... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster profit growth won't spur investment The faster growth in corporate profits in the third quarter is an encouraging sign for economic growth, but the details were less impressive. In addition, with oil prices still relatively low despite... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada on hold for rest of this year The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.00% and its less hawkish policy statement indicate it will take a cautious approach, supporting our view that there will be no further rate... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal fiscal windfall unlikely to last Federal Finance Minister Bill Morneau didn’t deliver any major stimulus in today’s fiscal update, not that it was needed given the economy’s strong performance this year. But the pace of economic... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Tougher mortgage regulation to hit housing hard The final decision to forge ahead with proposals to tighten mortgage rules further will only make matters worse for the already faltering housing market. This will have a far greater impact on house... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Positive business sentiment points to interest rate hike The latest Business Outlook Survey shows that, despite concerns about a slowdown in housing and trade policy uncertainty, businesses expect above-potential economic growth ahead. This positive... 16th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Government should tread carefully on tax policy The current proposals to raise taxes on small business owners will raise little additional revenue for the Federal government and, at a time when the US is considering slashing business tax rates... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada still hawkish on rate outlook In his speech today, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz showed that he remains confident in the economy, suggesting that another interest rate hike is coming this year. That said, we still expect... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to tumble next year The Bank of Canada’s unexpectedly aggressive monetary tightening this year, which stands in stark contrast to the Fed’s over-cautious approach, largely explains the surge in the Canadian dollar this... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
