Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The surge in employment in November and the further strong gain in average earnings have arguably tipped the odds in favour of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates in the first half of next year... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the stronger-than-expected pace of third-quarter GDP growth because it mainly reflects a downward revision to GDP in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the latest GDP... 30th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The ongoing supply chain disruptions and unseasonably warm weather explain most of the weakness of retail sales in September, but it seems likely that the winding down of fiscal support to households... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation rose to an 18-year high of 4.7% in October but, as this was driven primarily by higher energy prices and was in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast, it is unlikely to shift the timing of... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The renewed closures of auto plants weighed heavily on manufacturing sales in September. While many factories re-opened again this month, there is still a chance that overall manufacturing sales... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The 31,200 gain in employment in October represented a marked slowdown from the 157,000 increase the month before, but the underlying details were encouraging and there appears to be much less labour... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The trade surplus widened to $1.9bn in September, from $1.5bn, which is better than we were expecting in light of the flash estimates suggesting that manufacturing sales declined last month and that... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP growth was weaker than expected in August and the preliminary estimate implies the economy stagnated last month. With third-quarter growth seemingly much weaker than the Bank’s latest forecasts... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Retail sales increased markedly in August, as expected, but they appear to have fallen sharply in September and the expiry of the CRB presents a downside risk to spending over the rest of the year. 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation rose further to 4.4% in September due to both renewed supply disruptions and the easing of travel restrictions. We do not expect the various supply disruptions that are pushing up goods... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys point to significant upside risks to wage growth. That said, as wage growth was still low in September and the surveys suggest that longer-term inflation... 18th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) Manufacturing sales volumes were a bit stronger than we expected in August, but the renewed cuts to production at auto production plants in September suggest that sales volumes fell again last month. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The surprisingly strong gain in September means that employment is now back in line with its pre-pandemic level, but the still elevated unemployment rate and only moderate pace of wage growth suggests... 8th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The large improvement in the trade surplus in August was much better than the consensus estimate of a small deterioration, but we are wary about suggesting that there are upside risks to our third... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Despite the smaller-than-expected decline in GDP in July and the strong preliminary estimate for August, third-quarter GDP growth still looks to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada predicted, which... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales fell in July, but that was mainly because consumers switched back to spending on services as the coronavirus restrictions were eased. In any case, the preliminary estimate suggests that... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
