Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The rise in manufacturing sales in March was entirely due to higher commodity prices, but the orders data and the business surveys suggest that sales volumes will do better in the coming months. 16th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in employment growth and large decline in hours worked in April present downside risks to GDP growth but, as temporary factors seem to explain much of the weakness, there is likely... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The trade surplus unexpectedly fell in March, despite the surge in commodity prices, but it is likely to rise in the second quarter, as export volumes recover while import volumes drop back. Canada... 4th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The jump in GDP in February means that, despite the Omicron wave, the economy was even stronger than expected in the first quarter. But signs of a sharp slowdown in the housing market in April suggest... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales were basically unchanged in February, but this understates the strength of total spending following the lifting of the Omicron wave restrictions on high-contact services. As consumer... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The surge in inflation in March was much larger than the Bank of Canada expected and suggests it will follow its 50 bp interest rate hike last week with another similar-sized move at its next meeting... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) The 4.2% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales in February was much better than we were expecting, as firms continued to boost production even though the blockade at the key Ambassador Bridge border... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Another solid rise in employment drove the unemployment rate down to a 48-year low of just 5.3% in March, but the still-muted pace of wage growth suggests the Bank of Canada may not need to tighten... 8th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb) The goods trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in February but, with commodity prices rising strongly since then and some of the jump in imports set to be reversed, it will rebound in March. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys suggest that firms’ and consumers’ long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored, which the Bank could use to justify a slower tightening cycle... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) Following the moderate gain in GDP in January, the preliminary estimate of a further 0.8% m/m surge in activity in February will fuel speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike its policy rate by a... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales made a strong start to 2022 and, while the hit to household purchasing power from higher gasoline prices is a headwind to further growth in sales volumes, the fact that consumer... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) While the price increases in February were not as broad-based as in January, they nevertheless caused all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures to rise further and suggest that, even... 16th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The sharp fall in manufacturing sales volumes in January was at least in part due to the impact of staff absenteeism amid the Omicron outbreak and, with hours worked across the sector increasing... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The labour market boom resumed in February and the odds of a sharp acceleration in wage growth are rising, which would add to the pressure for the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates. 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The goods trade balance moved back to a surplus of more than $2bn in January and, based on the recent broad gains in commodity prices, it is likely to hit close to $5bn this month. If that were... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
