Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Nov.) We expect the official 'core' inflation rate, which was unchanged at 2.1% in November, to stay well within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1% to 3% in the coming months. As the economy slows and... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) The drop-back in manufacturing volumes, which fell 0.9% m/m in October, suggest that the risk to our monthly GDP growth assumption of 0.1% now lie to the downside. In addition, the decline raises some... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's international trade data suggest that fourth-quarter exports might be fizzling out faster than anticipated, despite the modest improvements in US economic indicators. The good news is that... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprising 18,600 decline in employment, which followed an even greater decline in the month prior, is discouraging to say the least. Given the deepening global financial crisis, an... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2011) Canada's better than estimated third-quarter GDP, which grew by 3.5% annualised, was due to one-time stronger external trade figures. Final domestic demand, however, grew at a slower pace than we had... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's jump in retail sales is further evidence that most households were undaunted by financial market volatility and declines in equity prices last quarter. Despite the drop in consumer... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) Although the official measure of core inflation, which dipped from 2.2% to 2.1% in October, might stay slightly above the Bank of Canada's target of 2% in the near term, this is not a big concern... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in September's manufacturing sales bodes well for monthly GDP growth, which we estimate at 0.2% m/m. As such, we have revised up third-quarter GDP growth, from 2.5%... 15th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's international trade data confirm that net exports were a big positive for third-quarter economic growth, which we now estimate at 2.5% annualised. Although there are good reasons to not... 10th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's employment figures cruelly dashed any optimism that may have built up after the surprisingly good performance in September. Employment fell by 54,000 last month, reversing most of the 60,900... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.3% m/m increase in real GDP in August was solely due to the continuing rebound in energy production, which is still recovering from the disruptions in the spring caused by bad weather and... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The respectable 0.5% m/m gain in retail sales in August suggests that most households shrugged off the recent volatility in financial markets, despite evidence showing that confidence had fallen. In... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) The stronger than expected increase in core CPI inflation, from 1.9% to 2.2% in September, is mostly due to higher clothing prices, reflecting the past run-up in cotton prices. Although core CPI... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales and growth in unfilled orders is encouraging news. This provides further evidence that the economy rebounded in the third quarter, with... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's employment gain of 60,900 was a positive surprise, but the underlying details of the jobs report were less spectacular. Even so, it suggests that economic growth overall fared better in... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) July's GDP growth of 0.3% m/m provides further evidence that the economy rebounded this quarter, following temporary supply disruptions to industrial production in the previous quarter. This may be of... 1st October 2011 · 1 min read
