Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The surprising drop in December's official core inflation rate to 1.1%, from 1.2% in November, suggests that there is much more slack in the economy than most economists previously thought. With sub... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) November's solid 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales volumes, paired with a similar increase in wholesale trade, suggests that monthly GDP grew by 0.3% m/m in November. Nonetheless, there is still some... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) November's 1.6% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes is encouraging, though not strong enough to offset the previous month's decline of 2.2% m/m. All things considered, the risks to our... 18th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov. 12) November's paltry 0.1% m/m gain in export volumes is a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. Overall, the data suggest that the risks to our 1.5% annualised fourth-quarter GDP growth lie... 11th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) There is no denying the strength apparent in Canada's labour market at the end of 2012. Employment increased by nearly 40,000 in December, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-year low of 7.1%... 4th January 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) & CPI (Nov.) The 0.1% m/m gain in October's GDP, which partly reflected a rebound in oil and gas extraction, suggests that the economy began the fourth quarter on a somewhat stronger footing. The pace of economic... 21st December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Oct. 12) The 0.3% m/m bounce back in retail sales volumes in October, together with the large increase in wholesale trade reported yesterday, suggest that monthly GDP inched higher, stronger than the... 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct. 12) October's discouraging 2.4% m/m drop in manufacturing sales volumes together with the soft external trade data, released earlier this week, suggest that the economy stalled in October. Accordingly... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct. 12) October's flat export volumes are a discouraging sign for fourth-quarter GDP growth. In addition, the widespread decline in imports hints at a slowing domestic economy. Overall, the data suggest that... 11th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's surprisingly strong 59,300 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) seems far too good for an economy that is still growing below its potential rate. Given the uncertain... 7th December 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2012) Canada's disappointing 0.6% annualised third-quarter GDP growth puts further pressure on the Bank of Canada to drop its tightening bias. We doubt, however, that this would be enough to prompt the Bank... 30th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct. 12) Although core inflation, which remained at 1.3% in October, was slightly firmer than the consensus forecast of 1.2%, it remains well below the 2% policy target. Given the third-quarter economic... 23rd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep. 12) September's disappointing flat retail sales volumes, paired with a decline in wholesale trade and a modest increase in manufacturing sales, indicates that monthly GDP grew by just 0.1% m/m in... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) September's moderate 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing sales volumes, which was largely bolstered by a jump in aerospace, supports the view that Canada's economy grew by 0.2% m/m. Nevertheless, this... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep. 12) September's trade report confirms that exports were a major drag on overall third-quarter GDP growth, with net exports subtracting possibly as much as three percentage points. This evidence, combined... 8th November 2012 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct. 12) October's unexpectedly weak 1,800 gain in employment (the consensus estimate was 10,000) can be forgiven given the unusually strong gains in the previous two months. The worsening economic outlook... 2nd November 2012 · 1 min read
