Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) Although activity was stronger than initially estimated in May, the economy still failed to grow and the preliminary estimate suggests that GDP only crept up in June. Together with the weakening of... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) Retail sales rose by a bit more than we anticipated in May, but the preliminary estimate implies that most of the gain in sales volumes was reversed in June and the slump in consumer confidence... 22nd July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Despite the further rise in inflation to a multi-decade high, the June data showed some encouraging signs, with the monthly price gains slowing across almost every category. Inflation will begin to... 20th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes plunged in May amid renewed semiconductor shortages, but there is scope for a more sustained rebound over the second half of this year, despite the worsening global... 14th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The surprise fall in employment in June appears to reflect seasonal effects and, with wage growth surging to 5.2% y/y, the Bank of Canada will follow through next week on its hint of a larger 75 bp... 8th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) The recent falls in commodity prices mean that, after soaring in May and probably improving again in June, the trade surplus will decline in the coming months. Nonetheless, as we expect commodity... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The increase in long-run inflation expectations in the Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys further raises the probability of the Bank enacting a larger 75 bp interest rate hike next... 4th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The preliminary estimate suggests that the healthy 0.3% m/m rise in GDP in April was followed by a shock 0.2% contraction in May but, as this appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, it... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The jump in CPI inflation to 7.7% in May all but guarantees that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by a larger 75 bp next month, particularly with inflation on track to accelerate to over 8... 22nd June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rise in retail sales volumes in April reinforces our view that overall consumption growth will accelerate sharply this quarter but, with consumer confidence plunging in June and the housing... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The 0.9% m/m rise in April, combined with a large upward revision to March, means that manufacturing sales volumes have finally risen above their pre-pandemic peak. While the recovery in the motor... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The 39,800 rise in employment in May drove down the unemployment rate to a multi-decade low and there are now clear signs of the tight labour market pushing up wages. That raises the chance of the... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Elevated commodity prices were still doing little to lift the goods trade surplus at the start of the second quarter, but we expect it to widen in the coming months as goods imports from Asia drop... 7th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) First-quarter GDP growth slowed to 3.1% annualised, from 6.6%, as the Omicron-related restrictions had more of an impact than previously thought. But the 0.7% m/m increase in monthly GDP in March... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales values were unchanged month-to-month in March, as a further supply-related slump in motor vehicle sales offset a largely price-related surge in gasoline station sales and solid increases... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) CPI inflation edged up to a new cyclical high of 6.8% in April, from 6.7%, and, together with the more marked increases in core inflation, that almost guarantees the Bank of Canada will hike its... 18th May 2022 · 2 mins read
