Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jul.) The robust rebound in manufacturing sales volumes suggest that GDP likely rebounded by 0.3% m/m in July. That suggests the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing, but the weak end to the... 17th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The latest pick-up in house price inflation is consistent with the reported rebound in existing home sales. But as mortgage rates continue to rise, we expect falling home sales will eventually result... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The surprisingly robust 59,200 rebound in employment in August, following declines over the prior two months, wasn't quite as good as it looks because that gain owed a lot to a surge in part-time jobs... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) July's discouraging decline in export volumes adds to our concern that Canada is not fully benefitting from the gradually improving US economy. With export competitiveness challenges likely to persist... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2013) The moderate slowdown in GDP growth to 1.7% annualised in the second quarter, from 2.2% in the first, is encouraging given the impact of the flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) July's subdued inflation figures are consistent with an economy growing below potential, which will only reinforce the Bank of Canada's reluctance to raise rates anytime soon. With growth expected to... 23rd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) June's 1.2% m/m decline in retail sales volumes, which only partially reversed the 1.9% m/m gain in the month before, confirms that, over the second quarter as a whole, household consumption growth... 22nd August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Despite a strong rebound in petroleum refining, June's surprising 1.3% m/m decline in manufacturing sales volumes, which wasn't related to the floods in Alberta, suggests that second-quarter GDP... 16th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The continued deceleration in house price inflation across most major cities in July is broadly consistent with the past slowdown in home sales. As demand and supply imbalances continue to intensify... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) July's surprising 39,400 decline in employment looks bad but, since it mainly reflects less hiring of younger workers this summer, the Bank of Canada should view it as a temporary shock that will be... 9th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) June's 1.5% m/m rebound in export volumes and further contraction in imports are further evidence that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter. This supports our view that the economy grew by... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) Canada's economy regained some lost momentum mid-way through the last quarter, with real GDP expanding by 0.2% m/m in May. (See Chart.) Taking into consideration the likely weakness in June's GDP due... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) The robust 1.9% m/m gain in May's retail sales volumes, together with earlier reports showing strong increases in manufacturing and wholesale trade, suggest that the economy grew by as much as 0.4% in... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) The modest increase in the official core inflation figure in June, to 1.3% from 1.1% in the month before, was mainly due to specific base-year effects. We expect underlying inflation to stay at the... 19th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The 0.7% m/m rise in manufacturing sales volumes suggests that GDP growth in May might have been higher than 0.1% m/m. As a result, the risks to our forecast that second-quarter GDP will rise by 1.5%... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The fact that employment was unchanged in June, after posting a record-matching 95,000 gain in May, is an encouraging sign that economic conditions did not worsen too much in the second quarter... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
