Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The modest rebound in employment in January, which was not enough to reverse completely the slump last December, suggests that bad weather isn't the only factor depressing labour market conditions... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large increase in December's trade deficit provides further evidence supporting our view that Canada's economy isn't benefitting fully from the steadily improving US economy. 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's steady GDP growth of 0.2% m/m supports our view that the economy grew by an annualised 3.0% in the final quarter of last year. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's increase in underlying inflation was partly due to base year effects, which the Bank of Canada knows will prove temporary. With timely indicators still pointing to ultra low inflation, the... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The much stronger than expected rebound in retail sales volumes in November supports our view that the economy grew by at least 0.2% m/m in that month. For the fourth quarter overall, we still stand... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes in November was the third consecutive solid gain and hints that the improving outlook overseas may finally be filtering through to... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) The further uptick in house price inflation to a 16-month high of 3.8% in December, from 3.4%, is consistent with the earlier pick-up in existing home sales seen over the summer. If the recent descent... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's shocking decline in employment and hours worked probably had more to do with severe winter storms rather than the broader state of the economy. Accordingly, we suspect that this large... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's flat export and import trade figures suggest that the economy lost some momentum mid-way through the fourth quarter of last year. Given the fairly strong start to that quarter, however, we... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) October's stronger-than-consensus GDP growth of 0.3% m/m suggests that activity began the fourth quarter on a solid footing. For the quarter as a whole, we now think that the economy will expand by... 23rd December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Retail Sales (Oct.) With core inflation unexpectedly falling even closer to the bottom of the 1% to 3% target range in November, the Bank of Canada will be more worried than before about the downside risks to inflation. 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Oct.) October's surprisingly strong gain in manufacturing sales volumes was largely due to the strength of the rebound in food sales. The weakness of sales in most other categories and the downward trend in... 17th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The further acceleration in house price inflation to a 13-month high of 3.4% in November, from 3.1%, reflects the pick-up in existing home sales seen earlier this year. Most recently existing home... 12th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) November's stronger than expected 21,600 gain in employment was overshadowed by the decline in hours worked. Accordingly, the incoming data still points to slower fourth-quarter GDP growth, which we... 6th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Oct.) October's decline in export volumes illustrates that any export-led recovery is still some way off. This supports our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will slow to a very underwhelming 1.5%... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2013) Although the pick-up in third-quarter GDP growth is encouraging, it partly reflects the rebound from flooding in Alberta and the construction strike in Quebec. Unfortunately, the details show a... 29th November 2013 · 1 min read
