Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) February's consensus-matching 0.2% m/m increase in GDP, together with small upward revisions to earlier figures, suggest that first-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.0% annualised... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The trivial rise in retail sales volumes in February suggests that spending was probably still being held back by the unusually severe winter weather. Nonetheless, after accounting for the better... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) While headline inflation rebounded to 1.5% in March, from 1.1%, the uptick was due to higher energy prices and base year effects. In contrast, core inflation climbed only slightly to 1.3% last month... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Feb.) Despite the rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in February, the significant downward revisions to sales in the two preceding months confirm that bad weather dampened economic growth in the first... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Mar.) The decline in the Teranet measure of house price inflation to 4.6% in March, from 5.0%, reflects the earlier drop back in existing home sales. We expect sales to continue falling, eventually... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) Employment increased by a robust 42,900 in March, driving the unemployment rate down to a four-month low of 6.9%, from 7.0%. Unfortunately, the bulk of the net jobs created last month were apparently... 4th April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) February's merchandise trade report, which revealed only a partial rebound in export volumes, can be partly blamed on bad weather. Nevertheless it still seems that Canada's economy isn't benefitting... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The stronger than expected 0.5% m/m rebound in January's GDP, which fully reversed December's weather-related contraction, suggests that bad weather had a smaller effect on first-quarter activity than... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The decline in annual headline inflation to 1.1% in February, from 1.5%, won't concern the Bank of Canada as it mainly reflects base-year effects in transportation and clothing. Meanwhile, the strong... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jan.) The partial rebound in manufacturing sales volumes in January can be partly blamed on the bad weather, which continues to constrain activity. Nevertheless, the persistent weakness in unfilled orders... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The further acceleration in house price inflation to 5.0% in February, from 4.5% in the previous month, mainly reflects tighter supply and demand conditions. The drop in existing home sales since then... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & Int. Trade (Jan.) The 7,000 decline in employment in February specifically is not a major concern since the unusually severe winter may have played a role. Nevertheless, the broader picture is that employment has been... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2013) At first glance, the 2.9% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP suggests that the economy is on the right track. Unfortunately, growth was once again dependent on spending by heavily-indebted... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in core inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.3%, reflects both base-year effects and possibly some early impact from the weaker Canadian dollar. The latter is something that we anticipate... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) The discouraging decline in December's manufacturing sales volumes and downward revision to the previous month dampens our view that the improving outlook overseas may finally be filtering through to... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) January's pick-up in house price inflation isn't that surprising when you consider last year's home buying rush that was triggered by fears of rising mortgage rates. Now that home sales are dropping... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
