Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) October's stronger-than-expected GDP growth reflected more broad-based economic activity and has probably set the stage for stronger fourth-quarter annualised GDP growth than the 2.5% forecast by the... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The unexpected decline in the official core inflation rate to 2.1% in November, from 2.3%, supports the Bank of Canada's cautious neutral stance on the interest rate outlook. With the slump in oil... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation was 5.2% in November, down slightly from 5.4%, easily outpacing growth in household incomes. Accordingly, this only adds to our... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Canada Data Response - Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Trade (Oct.) The weaker than expected 10,700 decline in employment in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6%, from 6.5%, can be forgiven since it comes after extraordinarily strong job reports in... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2014) The bigger than expected gain in the expenditure-based measure of Q3 GDP means that the Bank of Canada will have a harder time next week defending its neutral stance on the interest rate outlook... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) September's stronger than expected 0.8% m/m gain in retail sales validates the recent strength in employment growth in suggesting that the economy ended the third quarter on a reasonably solid footing... 25th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The stronger than expected 2.3% core inflation reading in October won't change the Bank of Canada's mind that ultra low interest rates are needed to tackle the weakness in the real economy that would... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The Teranet-National Bank measure shows that house price inflation held at 5.4% in October, where it is likely to remain for the rest of this year. Nevertheless, the regional breakdown continues to... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) The stronger than expected employment gain of 43,100 in October, following a massive 74,100 rise in September, is the most encouraging sign yet that the economy may have shifted into a higher gear... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) September's encouraging trade report confirmed that the recovering export sector provided a solid positive contribution of around one percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The decline in GDP for August, after the near-stagnation in July, suggests that third-quarter GDP growth may have fallen short of the economy's potential growth rate of 2.0% annualised. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail sales drop back to underlying trend The small decline in August retail sales volumes, combined with the meagre gain in wholesale sales reported earlier this week, supports our view that the economy lost some momentum in the third... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Sep.) Recent market events, most notably the slump in world oil prices, will keep core inflation in Canada well within the policy target range over the coming months. Accordingly, we expect the Bank of... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The large drop in manufacturing sales volumes in August supports our more conservative view that the economy continued to struggle in that month. If anything, the risks to our below-consensus estimate... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The stronger than expected 74,100 increase in employment in September, which pushed the unemployment rate down to 6.8%, from 7.0%, suggests that the economy might finally be catching fire. One month... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) Canada's roller-coaster export performance continued in August, with exports tumbling after strong gains in the previous months. Even so, the export recovery still looks broadly intact. Indeed, a... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
