Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) February's modest decline in employment and rise in the unemployment rate, to 6.8% from 6.6%, reflects the early negative effects of a downturn in the mining sector. Accordingly, this supports our... 13th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Feb.) The Teranet-National Bank index shows that house price inflation slowed to 4.4% in February, from 4.7% in January, partly due to the abrupt slowdown in housing activity in regions hit by the slump in... 12th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade & Building Permits (Jan.) The jump in Canada's trade deficit to a two-and-a-half year high of $2.5bn in January, from $1.2bn, was principally due to a price-related 23% m/m drop in the value of crude oil exports. 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2014) The 2.4% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP looks encouraging enough, but this is merely the calm before the storm. 3rd March 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The decline in the headline CPI inflation rate to only 1.0% in January, from 1.5%, was entirely due gasoline prices, which fell by 26.9% over the past year. Excluding food, energy and other volatile... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec 14) The 2.0% m/m fall in the value of retail sales in December suggests that Canadian consumers have taken flight, perhaps fearful for their jobs in the wake of the fallout from the energy price collapse... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) December's stronger than expected gain in manufacturing sales suggests that GDP grew more strongly than we had assumed in that month. We now estimate that fourth-quarter GDP expanded by 2.4%... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The Teranet-National Bank index shows that house price inflation slowed to 4.7% in January, from 4.9% in December, which reflects the recent softening in housing activity triggered by the slump in... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) January's stronger than expected 35,400 gain in employment was driven entirely by a surge in part-time jobs. Accordingly, we wouldn't read too much into the small decline in the official jobless rate... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The trade deficit widened slightly to C$0.6bn in December, from C$0.3bn, but that increase was actually much smaller than expected. An encouraging rebound in export volumes more than offset the... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's weaker than expected 0.2% m/m decline in GDP suggests that the economy grew by no more than 2.0% annualised in Q4 last year. That's well below the Bank of Canada's estimate of 2.5%... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December's increase in core inflation, to 2.2% from 2.1%, reflects sector-specific factors and pass-through effects of a lower Canadian dollar already judged by the Bank of Canada as temporary. The... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Nov.) The larger than expected decline in November's manufacturing sales suggests that the economy lost some momentum in the final quarter of last year. We estimate the economy grew by close to 2.5%... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) Although the Teranet-National Bank measure shows house price inflation slowing slightly to 4.9% in December, from 5.2%, price gains are still outpacing growth in household incomes. The upshot is that... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.)2 The 4,300 decline in employment in December is a little disappointing, particularly as it follows a 10,700 fall the month before that. To some extent, however, the declines in the final two months of... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov.) With crude oil prices still in freefall, the deterioration in the monthly trade balance to a deficit of $0.6bn in November, from $0.3bn, is unfortunately only the start of what could develop into a... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read