Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s quarterly surveys offer some evidence that aggressive policy tightening is having the intended effects, with widespread fears of recession leading to a moderation in wage... 17th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The 1.7% m/m decline in real manufacturing sales in August more than reversed the gains over the preceding couple of months, leaving volumes at a seven-month low. Admittedly, sales are being held back... 14th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The first rise in employment in four months was not as strong as it looked, as it was driven entirely by the public sector, while the fall in hours worked points to downside risks to GDP growth... 7th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The drop in export volumes in August and the large downward revision to the trade surplus in July present downside risks to our already-weak estimate for third-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% annualised. 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Strong gains in the natural resource sector will prevent the economy from contracting this quarter but, with the business surveys deteriorating and the global economy facing recession, it looks... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The fall in retail sales volumes in July leaves them on track for their weakest quarter since the initial pandemic lockdowns in early 2020. With the Bank of Canada’s policy rate hikes still feeding... 23rd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The larger-than-expected falls in headline and core inflation in August suggest that the Bank of Canada will enact a smaller interest rate hike in October, particularly with the labour market now... 20th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (July) Although manufacturing sales fell by 0.9% m/m in July, in line with the preliminary estimate, that was a better outcome than we had expected given the more downbeat export data. Furthermore, the... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The fall in employment in August was concentrated in the public sector and the jump in unemployment reflected an immigration-fuelled rise in the labour force, so they probably overstate the weakness... 9th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jul.) Export volumes rose by more than we expected in July but, with the fall in import volumes painting a weak picture of domestic demand, it still looks like GDP growth will slow sharply this quarter. 7th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2) The weaker-than-expected second-quarter rise in GDP as well as the preliminary estimate of a small fall in output in July confirm the economy is slowing sooner than the Bank of Canada predicted... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The small gain in retail sales volumes in June appears to have been more than reversed in July. As the Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates further and there is little reason to expect an... 19th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in headline inflation to 7.6% in July left it lower than the Bank of Canada’s recent forecast but, amid continued broad upward pressure on core prices, we still judge that the Bank is more... 16th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Manufacturing sales volumes only inched up in June and, with the manufacturing surveys on both sides of the border weakening in recent months, the outlook is growing even more challenging. 15th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (July) The second consecutive monthly fall in employment will raise a few eyebrows at the Bank of Canada but, as retirements were partly to blame, the unemployment rate remained at a record low and wage... 5th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jun.) Export volumes outpaced import volumes in June but, with the survey-based export indices falling back, the outlook is growing more challenging. Together with the declines in commodity prices since... 4th August 2022 · 2 mins read
