Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Sep.) Exports lost momentum during the third quarter, with volumes stagnating in September after falling in August, suggesting that the economy is unlikely to sustain the estimated 2.5% annualised GDP... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) Canada’s economy grew by only 0.1% m/m in August, much slower than in the previous two months. Those gains in June and July mean that the economy still grew by close to 2.5% annualised in the third... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.2% m/m decline in consumer prices in September, which pushed the annual inflation rate down to 1.0%, from 1.3%, was almost entirely due to a big slump in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices fell by... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in August was larger than we had assumed and indicates that a stronger showing in third-quarter real consumer spending is an upside risk to our overall GDP... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The slight decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August echoes the decline in exports already reported for that month, providing more evidence that the recovery from the first-half recession is... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.6% in September and the elevated sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it will accelerate to 6.0% by the end of the year. The national average... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The labour market continued to withstand the oil shock in September, churning out a moderate gain of 12,100 jobs. This wasn’t enough, however, to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.1%... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) While the sharp decline in export volumes in August was disappointing, the big gains in earlier months mean that net trade still contributed positively to third-quarter GDP, which we now estimate grew... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) The stronger than expected showing in July’s GDP, which reflects volatility in oil sands output, suggests that the risks to the Bank of Canada’s Q3 GDP growth forecast of 1.5% annualised lie to the... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The modest 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in July, together with the slight downward revised figures for June, suggest that the pace of consumer spending growth slowed in the third quarter... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The unchanged 1.3% annual headline inflation rate in August and the drop in core inflation to 2.1%, from 2.4%, are in line with the Bank of Canada’s assumptions, so they won’t change its neutral view... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.4% in August and the elevated sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it will accelerate to 6.0% before year end. The national average continues to be... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) August's employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector. This is more evidence supporting our view that the economy likely returned... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jul.) The narrowing of the trade deficit in July indicates that the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing. This supports our view that, after suffering a mild recession in the first half of the... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2015) The 0.5% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP, following a downward revised contraction in the first quarter, confirmed that the economy slipped into a technical recession in the first half of... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) Although July's annual core inflation rate nudged up to 2.4% from 2.3%, the Bank of Canada likely couldn't care less. With the economy in a mild recession and falling oil and other industrial... 21st August 2015 · 1 min read