Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2016) The pick-up in GDP growth in the first quarter might convince some that the worst effects of the oil price shock are over, but the details showed that business investment fell further, consistent with... 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The rise in the core inflation rate in April, to 2.2% from 2.1%, was slightly stronger than expected but still appears due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the... 20th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The modest decline of 2,100 in employment in suggests that the economy is still struggling to cope with lower oil prices. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%. We still believe that the worst... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Despite a 25% m/m rebound in crude oil prices, the much larger than expected merchandise trade deficit in March suggests that the underlying momentum in the economy was weaker than widely assumed... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Retail Sales (Feb.) The rise in the core inflation rate in March, to 2.1% from 1.9%, was stronger than expected but appears mainly due to the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. As the weakness in the economy takes... 22nd April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) Even after allowing for the sharp decline in the value of petroleum sales, the 3.3% m/m drop in manufacturing sales in February was twice as large as expected, with the drop in sales volumes hinting... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February’s decline in export volumes, earlier gains mean that exports in Q1 asa whole grew quite strongly, easily outpacing imports. Net exports likely contributedas much as 3 percentage... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m increase in January GDP, which was double the 0.3% m/m consensus estimate, was a very welcome surprise, particularly as the gain was so broad-based. We are not convinced the stronger tone... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The much stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes in January is an encouraging start to the year, with the details reflecting stronger external demand and some resilience in... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The weaker than expected 2,300 decline in employment in February and further uptick in the unemployment rate to a three-year high of 7.3% from 7.2%, provides more evidence that the economy is... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) Despite the modest rise in the monthly trade deficit to $0.7bn in January, from $0.6bn, the big 3.6% m/m surge in export volumes is good news. The balance of risks to our forecast that first-quarter... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2015) It underlines how bad things have become in Canada that the 0.8% annualised increase in fourth-quarter GDP, above the consensus forecast for no change, will be celebrated as some sort of economic... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) Consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, as a sharp 0.6% m/m jump in food prices offset the gasoline-related 0.8% m/m decline in transportation prices. Added to some... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The 1.3% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes in December is encouraging, but the broader picture is still that, despite a 30% depreciation in the Canadian dollar over the past four years... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) House price inflation slowed to 5.9% in January, from 6.2%, and the existing home-sales-to-listings ratio indicates that the pace of inflation will ease further in the coming months. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The weaker than expected 5,700 decline in employment in January, was a poor start to the year and provides more evidence that the economy is struggling to cope with the collapse in oil prices. The... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
