Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2016) Although we won’t know the outcome of this week’s Supreme Court hearing until (probably) January, whichever way it goes, the Government may still be able to trigger Article 50 by March 31st. That said... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in September is encouraging but, given the already reported 1.5% m/m slump in wholesales sales volumes that month, the economy still ended the third quarter... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The continued softness in core consumer prices in October suggests that the downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s core inflation rate projection is growing, which is consistent with our view that an... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The better than expected 0.3% m/m increase in manufacturing sales in September was overshadowed by the disappointing drop in sales volumes, hinting that the economy ended the third quarter on a weak... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The national house price growth rate edged up to 11.8% in October, from 11.7%, driven entirely by Toronto’s hot housing market. While we expect that trend to continue in the very near term, stricter... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The unexpected 43,900 increase in employment in October was driven entirely by gains in part-time work, which is more evidence that the economy is struggling to generate quality high-paying jobs. Even... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.2% m/m gain in August GDP, partly driven by the further recovery in oil extraction, all but confirms that the economy grew by close to 3.5% annualised in the third quarter following the wildfire... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) The recent softness in core CPI inflation could become a major concern for the Bank of Canada. The Bank was forced to cut its projection for inflation earlier this week in its new Monetary Policy... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The better than expected 0.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales in August, which translated into an even bigger 1.2% m/m gain in volumes terms, will provide even more reassurance to the Bank of... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep. 16) The current madness in Toronto’s housing market will predictably be blamed on foreigners, but the near-record 16.4% increase in house prices over the past 12 months is mainly due to low interest rates... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep. 16) The massive 67,000 increase in employment in September will reassure the Bank of Canada that the economy is still enjoying a decent rebound following the wildfire disruption in the second quarter... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul. 16) The bigger than expected 0.5% m/m gain in July GDP means that the Bank of Canada’s forecast of a 3.5% annualised increase for the third quarter as a whole now looks well within reach. However, it is... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) The decline in the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of core CPI inflation to a two-year low of 1.8% in August, from 2.1%, shows that the upward pressure on prices from last year’s slump in the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in sales volumes in July shows that manufacturing is moving in the right direction, but the broader pace of growth is still very disappointing given the strong boost that the... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug. 16) The Teranet house price index shows the national growth rate climbed to a six-year high of 11.4% y/y in August, as prices continued to increase in Vancouver even after the introduction of the new... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
