Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although the 54,000 rise in employment in July blew the consensus out of the water, it was driven largely by temporary jobs, and average earnings growth dropped sharply. Despite the positive headline... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) Following June’s jump in exports and decline in imports, net trade appears to have made a decent positive contribution to GDP growth in the second quarter. But with a variety of factors likely to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The consensus-beating 0.5% monthly rise in GDP means that growth over the second quarter as a whole looks to have been 3.0% in annualised terms. The Bank of Canada largely anticipated this strength... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jun.) & Retail Sales (May) The rise in headline inflation to a six-year high of 2.5% in June, from 2.2%, left it above the Bank of Canada’s forecast, while two of the Bank’s three measures of core inflation are now in line with... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Although manufacturing sales rebounded in May and the near-term outlook seems bright, the sector remains on track for a weak second quarter. In the longer-term, competitiveness issues and trade policy... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) The national rate of house price inflation slowed to a near-five-year low of 2.9% in June. With house price inflation in Vancouver now plummeting back down to earth, the national rate looks set to... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) & International Trade (May) Although the unemployment rate rose and wage growth slowed in June, the construction-driven 32,000 increase in employment will soothe concerns about the housing market. Even with exports falling in... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) Despite the slowdown in monthly GDP growth in April, the chance of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates next month has risen following the good performance by conventional industries at the start... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly weak inflation and retail sales data released today support our view that the Bank of Canada will stand pat at next month’s policy meeting, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The unexpected 1.9% m/m slump in manufacturing sales volumes in April is a blow to the Bank of Canada, since it suggests that economic growth has not picked up much after the disappointingly weak... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) One month of falling employment can be chalked up to the notorious volatility in the labour force survey, but two months? That’s not something the Bank of Canada can ignore, particularly not as the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a six-month low of $1.9bn in April, from $3.9bn, as imports fell back to more normal levels and exports ticked higher. The rise in exports was led by gains in... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2018) The unexpectedly weak 1.3% annualised gain in first-quarter GDP means that a July rate hike by the Bank of Canada suddenly looks a lot less of a done deal than it did with the release of the more... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Apr.) & Retail Sales (Mar.) The firming in core inflation and the new-found strength of retail sales will increase speculation that the Bank of Canada is going to increase interest rates again later this year. Our view is still... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Mar.) The 1.4% m/m rise in manufacturing sales values in March, which followed an upwardly revised 2.7% m/m gain in February (previously 1.9%) was principally due to rising prices. In volume terms... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet house Prices (Apr.) The national rate of house price inflation dropped to a two-and-a-half year low of 5.6% in April, from 6.6%, and the recent slide in home sales points to a further moderation over the remainder of... 14th May 2018 · 1 min read
